For some, there were some big shocks on the UFC 82 card, but the fact is, most of it was understandable.

We saw Anderson Silva submit Dan Henderson to solidify his position at the top of the 185 pound ranks in most minds.

We saw Diego Sanchez return to form and destroy his Swedish opponent, who I clearly overestimated.

We saw Koscheck destroy Dustin Hazelett, who everyone else seemed to have drastically overestimated.

We saw Chris Wilson take Jon Fitch the distance, but drop the fight in the end, as was expected.

We saw Andrei Arlovski pound Jake O’Brien into a bloody pulp, and many of us pointed and laughed.

We saw Heath Herring outgrapple Cheick Kongo, who seems to be showing improvement on the ground, but doesn’t seem to understand that his ground game still sucks.

We saw Yushin Okami kick the crap out of Evan Tanner, which I might not have predicted, but I’ll admit that when I saw the size difference as they squared off I considered as a possibility.

The real question is what does this mean for the future of the division.

Well, the middleweight division seems devoid of challengers. I mean, there’s the possibility of Cote or Kampmann, but I don’t think anyone expects them to beat Silva. That’s just a fact.

Silva may have to engage in a unification fight with Paulo Filho to find a real challenge, and it certainly would be, given that Filho looks like the #2 man in the division, with Henderson getting knocked off.

The possibility of Zuffa doing that unification fight seems more and more possible, as Filho’s division doesn’t seem particularly rife with talented opposition either, and it would certainly be an incredible draw.

Kongo’s loss simplifies the UFC heavyweight division, leaving us with only two serious contenders: Arlovski and Werdum. While people didn’t think that Kongo was a serious contender, I still maintain that he would have been.

I think that Kongo will fight Antoni Hardonk in his next fight, and that will be an awesome matchup. If Joe Silva doesn’t set this fight up, I’ll be seriously disappointed, as it would be an interesting striking war, the kind we really only get to see in K-1 nowadays.

Mir also seems to be looking like a legitimate contender, now that Kongo is gone, but it’s hard to really call him that when I tend to believe that he’d be destroyed by both Werdum and Arlovski. Still, I wouldn’t object to seeing Mir fight Sylvia again to try and prove that he’s really back in the division. That would make for a great rematch. The possibility of him fighting Kongo was really nullified by this fight with Herring, but I think that it’s still a possibility to see Mir fight Herring, should Herring continue to fight with the UFC.

Sanchez, Koscheck and Fitch caused perhaps the biggest shift in their division, because all three are really vying for the chance to fight Matt Hughes for a top-contender position. Personally, I think that they should give it to Fitch, given that he is still undefeated in the UFC, but they may give it to Koscheck because of his wrestling pedigree and his status as a reality show celebrity.

I’m fairly certain they won’t give it to Sanchez, because they want to see him recover a little bit first, but I haven’t dismissed the prospect of him fighting Hughes if Hughes should lose a fight to either Fitch or Koscheck. I’d like to see Diego fight Tommy Speer, but I think that such a possibility is unlikely, as the UFC wants to keep their country boy pretty.

As for Leben, I’d like to see him fight Drew McFedries, as they are both trying to get back on the contender trail. I’m also open to the idea of Leben fighting Evan Tanner, as I think that would be a cool stylistic matchup and help to get Tanner back on track if he should win.

Okami is in a very interesting position, as he’s not really deserving of a top tier position in my mind, but could hold up a solid post as a gatekeeper. I’d like to see him fight the loser of Patrick Cote vs. Martin Kampmann (which I hope would be a top contenders’ match) and see what happens from there. I’d also like to see him fight Joe Riggs, as it would be an interesting fight, but since that fight really doesn’t seriously advance Okami, I doubt Joe Silva will put it together.

The UFC is in for an interesting year, and seems to be putting together an interesting group of contenders in their lower weight classes, while working hard to reestablish the big men. UFC 82 was a good step towards that, especially for the 170 pounders and Anderson Silva. The future for all looks bright.

Next up, UFN: Lauzon vs. Florian.

Tanner’s debut fell short, nobody seems to like WWE wrestlers in the stands, Urijah Faber gets his recognition, and Anderson Silva can’t be beat. There’s a lot more, but I want to focus on a few thoughts from UFC 82 last night in Columbus, Ohio.

Jon Fitch had a hard time with his replacement oppononent, Chris Smith, but it was Evan Tanner who had the hardest night of them all. The middleweight fighter, absent from the octagon for nearly two years, made his comeback attempt last night against potential middleweight contender Yushin Okami. It fell just a tad short in the second round as Okami felled Tanner with a knee in the clinch. Is it the end for Tanner? Knowing his heart, I doubt it. Let’s just hope the UFC gives him a fighter who is a little more dynamic. The crowd wasn’t very excited to watch the somewhat boring Okami attempt to dance around a reluctant Tanner. But there’s a lesson to be learned - don’t underestimate the cautious fighter. Just look at Lyoto Machida.

So why don’t UFC fans like WWE stars in the crowd, but they’ll watch PPV events with WWE stars in record numbers? Brock Lesnar’s numbers from UFC 81 are showing one of the best numbers for the UFC ever, yet the fans overwhelm the arena with boos when a wrestler is given some camera time. I’m a little confused. Is there really that big of a difference between the live gate fans versus the PPV fans? As noted by the Wrestling Observer, Urijah Faber finally received some recognition from the fans. Perhaps the MMA crowd is starting to learn more about other (albeit UFC-owned) promotions?

A couple years ago, it was Wanderlei Silva who was the big name to beat. Now, it’s Anderson. After destroying Chris Leben, Nate Marquardt, Travis Lutter, Chris Leben, and Rich Franklin (twice), Silva was finally up against a new contender. Although Silva was able to submit Dan Henderson with 8 seconds left in the second round, it certainly wasn’t in dominating fashion similar to his previous five UFC fights. John Philapavage thinks an immediate rematch could be on it’s way. I’m thinking Dana White is shopping around for some more middleweights to bring in against Silva before allowing Henderson another shot at the title. Henderson, who showed that he was a formidable contender with his wrestling throughout the first round, may have to face off against Leben, Okami, Marquardt, or even the winner of Franklin/Lutter. We saw The Spider trap another opponent, but he still can beaten. Can the UFC find that guy?

Overall, the show was exciting from the PPV side of things. I was happy to learn that Arlovski stopped lay-n-pray wrestler Jake O’Brien, Heath Herring looked to be back in shape, and Leben showed his chin was still intact. I couldn’t really complain - 9/10.

If they like watching people get punched in the face.

Raghu Nath recently gave a pretty good look at the hype package and inserted some of his picks. I’m not going to really look at the hype behind the fights, because the UFC will do plenty of that themselves. Instead, here’s what I think’s going down, from the bottom of the card to the top.

John Halverson vs. Jorge Gurgel

This is, in my mind, a classic Jiu-Jitsu vs. Striker matchup, but since Gurgel has shown an incredible inability to finish throughout his career, I’m going to do something I don’t usually do, and pick the BJJ blackbelt to lose. While part of this is just to mix this up, I really think that if Halverson comes out swinging, as he’s expected to, he could land a short that puts Gurgel out. Otherwise, he’ll probably drop a decision.

My Pick: Halverson via TKO, Round 1

David Bielkheden vs. Diego Sanchez

There’s very little knowledge about Bielkheden, but what little I do know has endeared him to me alot. That, and the fact that Sanchez has dropped two straight without really showing serious signs of recovery from the initial loss to Josh Koscheck via decision. While both of his losses were to pin-down fighters with great wrestling backgrounds, I think that Bielkheden is going to make this a fight off of his back. The Swede’s BJJ blackbelt and training with Brazilian Top Team make this fight interesting if it hits the floor. Still, I think that Sanchez’s standup will take this fight as it wears on.

My Pick: Sanchez by KO, Round 3

Dustin Hazelett vs. Josh Koscheck

As someone who’s trained with Kos, and knows what the AKA camp is capable of under the instruction of the Camarillo’s and their many talented 170 pound fighters, I think that Kos is not getting the credit he deserves. I won’t take anything away from Hazelett, as his submission game is very good, but Koscheck is a national champion wrestler, and that NCAA background plays a huge roll in his physical power and his ability to control opponents on the ground. Bar a Drew Fickett-esque come from behind victory, I don’t see Hazelett winning this match, and I see Kos controlling it on the ground

My Pick: Koscheck by Unanimous Decision (Bring Pillows)

Luigi Fiorovanti vs. Luke Cummo

I refuse to underestimate the power of Fiorovanti’s camp, as the ATT guys are complete warriors, and the coaching staff contains one of the best grapplers in the world, Jeff Monson. I don’t know how Cummo expects to deal with that, and though he’s got a great camp with the Serra Jiu-Jitsu guys and kickboxing genius Ray Luongo, I don’t see Cummo being able to pull this one out, as he has alot of trouble fighting off of the bottom.

My Pick: Fiorovanti by TKO, Round 2

Jake O’Brien vs. Andrei Arlovski

Andrei Arlovski is fighting a wrestler who barely beat a badly injured, Octagon shocked Heath Herring. Not to mention that Andrei has something to prove, since his unimpressive performance against Fabricio Werdum. If this fight stays on the feet, expect Andrei to do alot of punching and O’Brien to do alot of falling down. If it goes to the ground, do not forget that Andrei Arlovski has a submission game, he’s a serious Sambo fighter. Still, don’t hold your breath for Andrei to pull out a submission, I’m sure he’d much rather punch O’Brien in the mouth.

My Pick: Andrei Arlovski by KO, Round 1 (The Big Dog is back)

Chris Wilson vs. Jon Fitch

I won’t write off Chris Wilson. He might be a great fighter and certainly has a solid submission game, but the fact is, he wasn’t called into this fight because people expected him to win. Fitch is supposed to beat Wilson down and advance his rank in the 170 pound division, by posting his 8th straight win and finishing an opponent, ideally in impressive fashion. That is what I expect him to do, because, while Wilson can catch a submission off the bottom, I don’t expect he will on a wrestler like Fitch, who’s been proven to have serious heart when it comes to fighting through submissions.

My Pick: Jon Fitch by Submission (Rear Naked Choke), Round 2 (Round 1 will be exciting, as like the fight with Roan Carniero, but the ending will be similar, too)

Yushin Okami vs. Evan Tanner

Both of these men are underrated submission fighters. Tanner has one of the most wicked triangles in the sport and Okami almost finished Rich Franklin with a kimura when they fought. That said, it really comes down to a battle of size against experience. Okami is a huge dude, and Tanner has alot of experience in this sport, and against alot of incredible fighters, include his middleweight title win over David Terrell. Personally, I’ll be cheering for Tanner, and I think this will be a close, back and forth match.

My Pick: Tanner by Submission (Some sort of Triangle), Round 3 (expect Okami to get on top and do some damage in rounds 1 and 2)

Alessio Sakara vs. Chris Leben

Leben is a warrior, but I think that, to put it simply, he will fail against a much more experienced, much more skilled boxer. While Sakara has been proven to be a painfully one dimensional fighter in the past, I think the fact that he is coming down to 185 and will be very large compared to Leben will give him a serious edge in this fight and allow it to keep it on the feet and manipulate the pace of the fight, using his boxing whenever and however he likes to dispatch Leben. It make take a few rounds for the technical control to really sink in, but it will happen, and when it does there will be a big KO.

My Pick: Sakara by KO, Round 2

Cheick Kongo vs. Heath Herring

If Dan Henderson and Anderson Silva weren’t on this card, this would be a shoe-in for fight of the night. Herring may try to take this fight to the ground, but, personally, I’d love to see this fight stay on the feet and, given Herring’s not much of a wrestler, it probably will. He may test Kongo’s takedown defense a little, but I think that the Frenchman’s ability to control distance and manipulate the pace of this fight will give him the huge edge in the overall game, and his general kickboxing prowess will put it in the bag.

My Pick: Kongo by KO, Round 2

Anderson Silva vs. Dan Henderson

I’ve given a much longer analysis of this fight, but I’ll abbreviate it by saying that I expect this fight to stay at range, as Anderson will lay back and try and avoid the clinch, not because he thinks Henderson is better at doing damage there, but because Henderson is certainly better at taking the fight to the ground from there. If Silva can stay at range and land powerful strikes and alot of combinations, we’ll see a solid test of Henderson’s chin, and while I don’t think that Silva will knock Hendo out, I think he’ll make a great argument for the judges to give the fight to him after five rounds.

My Pick: Silva by Unanimous Decision

Awards

Knock Out of the Night: Andrei Arlovski

Submission of the Night: Evan Tanner

Fight of the Night: Anderson Silva over Dan Henderson

Forget about the Ortiz vs. Rashad fight; it ended in a foreseeable draw. Herring vs. Nogueira? It only ended in the typical Herring fashion with a judges decision after three rounds of mostly standup fighting. The Florian fight ended with KenFlo victorious and threatening the rest of the 155 pound weight class while his ridiculously obnoxious corner danced and screamed behind him. The focus of the UFC 73 main card was on the two championship bouts with Middleweight Anderson Silva up against Pancrase champion Nathan Marquardt and Lightweight Sean “The Muscle Shark” Sherk fighting Hermes Franca.

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