If they like watching people get punched in the face.

Raghu Nath recently gave a pretty good look at the hype package and inserted some of his picks. I’m not going to really look at the hype behind the fights, because the UFC will do plenty of that themselves. Instead, here’s what I think’s going down, from the bottom of the card to the top.

John Halverson vs. Jorge Gurgel

This is, in my mind, a classic Jiu-Jitsu vs. Striker matchup, but since Gurgel has shown an incredible inability to finish throughout his career, I’m going to do something I don’t usually do, and pick the BJJ blackbelt to lose. While part of this is just to mix this up, I really think that if Halverson comes out swinging, as he’s expected to, he could land a short that puts Gurgel out. Otherwise, he’ll probably drop a decision.

My Pick: Halverson via TKO, Round 1

David Bielkheden vs. Diego Sanchez

There’s very little knowledge about Bielkheden, but what little I do know has endeared him to me alot. That, and the fact that Sanchez has dropped two straight without really showing serious signs of recovery from the initial loss to Josh Koscheck via decision. While both of his losses were to pin-down fighters with great wrestling backgrounds, I think that Bielkheden is going to make this a fight off of his back. The Swede’s BJJ blackbelt and training with Brazilian Top Team make this fight interesting if it hits the floor. Still, I think that Sanchez’s standup will take this fight as it wears on.

My Pick: Sanchez by KO, Round 3

Dustin Hazelett vs. Josh Koscheck

As someone who’s trained with Kos, and knows what the AKA camp is capable of under the instruction of the Camarillo’s and their many talented 170 pound fighters, I think that Kos is not getting the credit he deserves. I won’t take anything away from Hazelett, as his submission game is very good, but Koscheck is a national champion wrestler, and that NCAA background plays a huge roll in his physical power and his ability to control opponents on the ground. Bar a Drew Fickett-esque come from behind victory, I don’t see Hazelett winning this match, and I see Kos controlling it on the ground

My Pick: Koscheck by Unanimous Decision (Bring Pillows)

Luigi Fiorovanti vs. Luke Cummo

I refuse to underestimate the power of Fiorovanti’s camp, as the ATT guys are complete warriors, and the coaching staff contains one of the best grapplers in the world, Jeff Monson. I don’t know how Cummo expects to deal with that, and though he’s got a great camp with the Serra Jiu-Jitsu guys and kickboxing genius Ray Luongo, I don’t see Cummo being able to pull this one out, as he has alot of trouble fighting off of the bottom.

My Pick: Fiorovanti by TKO, Round 2

Jake O’Brien vs. Andrei Arlovski

Andrei Arlovski is fighting a wrestler who barely beat a badly injured, Octagon shocked Heath Herring. Not to mention that Andrei has something to prove, since his unimpressive performance against Fabricio Werdum. If this fight stays on the feet, expect Andrei to do alot of punching and O’Brien to do alot of falling down. If it goes to the ground, do not forget that Andrei Arlovski has a submission game, he’s a serious Sambo fighter. Still, don’t hold your breath for Andrei to pull out a submission, I’m sure he’d much rather punch O’Brien in the mouth.

My Pick: Andrei Arlovski by KO, Round 1 (The Big Dog is back)

Chris Wilson vs. Jon Fitch

I won’t write off Chris Wilson. He might be a great fighter and certainly has a solid submission game, but the fact is, he wasn’t called into this fight because people expected him to win. Fitch is supposed to beat Wilson down and advance his rank in the 170 pound division, by posting his 8th straight win and finishing an opponent, ideally in impressive fashion. That is what I expect him to do, because, while Wilson can catch a submission off the bottom, I don’t expect he will on a wrestler like Fitch, who’s been proven to have serious heart when it comes to fighting through submissions.

My Pick: Jon Fitch by Submission (Rear Naked Choke), Round 2 (Round 1 will be exciting, as like the fight with Roan Carniero, but the ending will be similar, too)

Yushin Okami vs. Evan Tanner

Both of these men are underrated submission fighters. Tanner has one of the most wicked triangles in the sport and Okami almost finished Rich Franklin with a kimura when they fought. That said, it really comes down to a battle of size against experience. Okami is a huge dude, and Tanner has alot of experience in this sport, and against alot of incredible fighters, include his middleweight title win over David Terrell. Personally, I’ll be cheering for Tanner, and I think this will be a close, back and forth match.

My Pick: Tanner by Submission (Some sort of Triangle), Round 3 (expect Okami to get on top and do some damage in rounds 1 and 2)

Alessio Sakara vs. Chris Leben

Leben is a warrior, but I think that, to put it simply, he will fail against a much more experienced, much more skilled boxer. While Sakara has been proven to be a painfully one dimensional fighter in the past, I think the fact that he is coming down to 185 and will be very large compared to Leben will give him a serious edge in this fight and allow it to keep it on the feet and manipulate the pace of the fight, using his boxing whenever and however he likes to dispatch Leben. It make take a few rounds for the technical control to really sink in, but it will happen, and when it does there will be a big KO.

My Pick: Sakara by KO, Round 2

Cheick Kongo vs. Heath Herring

If Dan Henderson and Anderson Silva weren’t on this card, this would be a shoe-in for fight of the night. Herring may try to take this fight to the ground, but, personally, I’d love to see this fight stay on the feet and, given Herring’s not much of a wrestler, it probably will. He may test Kongo’s takedown defense a little, but I think that the Frenchman’s ability to control distance and manipulate the pace of this fight will give him the huge edge in the overall game, and his general kickboxing prowess will put it in the bag.

My Pick: Kongo by KO, Round 2

Anderson Silva vs. Dan Henderson

I’ve given a much longer analysis of this fight, but I’ll abbreviate it by saying that I expect this fight to stay at range, as Anderson will lay back and try and avoid the clinch, not because he thinks Henderson is better at doing damage there, but because Henderson is certainly better at taking the fight to the ground from there. If Silva can stay at range and land powerful strikes and alot of combinations, we’ll see a solid test of Henderson’s chin, and while I don’t think that Silva will knock Hendo out, I think he’ll make a great argument for the judges to give the fight to him after five rounds.

My Pick: Silva by Unanimous Decision

Awards

Knock Out of the Night: Andrei Arlovski

Submission of the Night: Evan Tanner

Fight of the Night: Anderson Silva over Dan Henderson

In the followup to my previous article in the same series, here is my breakdown and predictions for the main card for the upcoming UFC 82: PRIDE of a Champion event.The fights covered in this edition are:Alessio “Legionarius” Sakara v/s Chris “The Crippler” Leben
Jon Fitch v/s Chris Wilson
Yushin “Thunder” Okami v/s Evan Tanner

Let’s get it on, then.

1. Alessio “Legionarius” Sakara v/s Chris “The Crippler” Leben

This is Alessio Sakara’s first fight at middleweight and judging by his last performance at Light Heavyweight, this one is going to be a barnburner! Sakara comes in with amazing boxing ability and a newly found confidence on the ground as well, thanks to his new camp - The American Top Team. Sakara, ever a dangerous knockout artist, seems to finally have worked at his achilles heel, the Takedown defence. What one wonders is whether Sakara will be able to translate his power and skill down in the middleweight division.

His acid test - The Crippler, Chris Leben. Although Leben is more known for his antics on the camera on the Ultimate fighter season 1, do not take this team quest and now hawaii based fighter lightly. Many people on the internet make the mistake of judging him by his TV appearance and have been proven wrong a few times. Ever an exciting fighter, Leben brings excellent ground skills and really good striking into this fight. What might be a bad idea for him would be to wait till he gets hit before he exhibits any fire in this match since one punch from Sakara will be all it takes to knock Leben out. Leben does have an advantage on the ground and I think that should be his strategy in this fight - take Sakara down and end the fight with punches from side mount.

An exciting standup battle is what I predict.

Prediction: Chris Leben by TKO round 2.

2. Jon Fitch v/s Chris Wilson

This is one of three match-ups that I am very excited to watch. Jon Fitch goes up against a very dangerous newcomer to the octagon in Chris Wilson.

Fitch, an exciting ground fighter, is well known in the division and is thought of by many as one of the rising stars in the division. Fitch has a phenomenal ground game and is pretty good at strikes also. I forsee Fitch trying to take the match to the mat and use his considerable wrestling skills to dominate Wilson on the ground to take the victory.

Wilson, on the otherhand, is a seasoned muay-thai veteran and has had an excellent record in stand-up matches. Wilson’s knees and strikes and especially his setups for the same are phenomenal and have ever gained the praise of many of the game’s best. His ground game is pretty good as well, training at Team Quest with the likes of Dan Henderson and Matt Lindland have really helped Wilson step up his skills on the ground and his submissions are really good as well. I personally am really excited to finally see Wilson in the UFC and can’t wait to see how he performs.

I think the match will end up on the ground for the latter half of the first round with Fitch dominating after taking a few blows while on the feet. The second round will have Fitch trying to get Wilson to the ground but Wilson will use his considerable reach to keep him at bay and the match ends by either submission or TKO on the ground for Chris Wilson. I know a lot of people are going to disagree with this one - glad to hear your thoughts.

Prediction: Chris Wilson - round 2 - Submission/ TKO

3. Yushin “Thunder” Okami v/s Evan Tanner

Evan Tanner returns!! This is basically what has been hyped a lot during the past few weeks and I have even read articles with Tanner claiming to know how to beat Anderson Silva. Two things here that don’t pertain to the match-up. It may be to generate interest, but I have never seen Tanner given so much media attention and secondly, never has Tanner ever made such statements before a fight either. Now that I have that off my chest…

Yushin “Thunder” Liger ..errr…I mean Okami is back after his decision loss to Rich Franklin and has been given the task of judging whether the 35 year old Tanner is still a force to reckon in the middleweight division or not. Okami is mainly a ground fighter with excellent takedowns and dominant wrestling capabilities. Deceptively strong, Okami possesses strength that will be a challenge for Tanner to fight against. The one big weakness that I see in Okami’s game that might cause him problems is that Okami is not very comfortable with strikes and someone with as dangerous a striking game as Tanner can be a daunting task for Okami. The one thing that Okami always goes to and I believe will this time as well is going to be the takedown and ground and pound strategy (if it works, don’t change it right?) and his strength and skill will definitely be difficult for Tanner to combat.

Tanner on the other hand has every eye on him and has a lot to prove. No one knows how good Tanner’s conditioning is - although I have never seen Tanner gas and he looked better than ever in promo material. Secondly, is the Evan Tanner who steps in to the octagon the same Tanner who stepped out a few years back? Third - Does Evan Tanner have the will and determination to take his game back to and beyond what it was when he lost to Rich Franklin?

This is the first time that Tanner has had a proper training and conditioning camp for a fight. Tanner’s strengths have always been his elite level striking and excellent submission game. Although his will is sometimes questioned, his heart has never been. He has excellent control during most of his defensive manouvers and can easily turn a defensive manouvre into an offensive tipping point. Look for a lot of crazy elbows from the back while maintaining guard and also look for some really crisp striking from Tanner.

Prediction: Evan Tanner by Submission/ Tapout - Round 3 (provided this is a fully prepared, ready Tanner who shows up).

P.S.: I really enjoyed the thoughtful counter-arguments and intelligent discussion that my first article generated and hope that all my future work including this one are the source of similar discussion. Thanks to all for participating in these discussions and all future ones.

I’m a big fan of undercard fights, because unlike the main event, the fighters always have something to prove, and they always want the airtime. On the next few UFC cards, there are a few matchups that you won’t hear the UFC talk about, but they’re definitely important. Here are some of my favorite upcoming matches and some of the most interesting matchups that no one will really be talking about, both on this UFC 82 card and in the near future:

Andrei Arlovski vs. Jake O’Brien

I’ll be honest, I’m really excited to see Jake O’Brien get punched in the face. It’d be an understatement to say that I don’t like his attitude, but it’s not going to far to say that I’d rather watch a Josh Koscheck marathon than watch O’Brien’s vicious laynpray. Andrei Arlovski has a very underrated ground game, which he’s pulled out of his world class sambo background, and he’s great a controlling distance. In all likelihood, this fight will end in O’Brien getting pounded or submitted, and O’Brien really has no outs in this fight, but Arlovski is going to be hungry and angry, given that he acknowledges that his last fight was a poor performance. Andrei has something to prove, and I certainly hope he brings it.

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