Edgar vs. Maynard II

Photo by Tracy Lee.

More and more, the UFC’s lightweight division starts to look like the welterweight division, with an upper echelon comprised largely of wrestlers. While there’s obviously a difference stylistically between the way that Frankie Edgar (13-1 MMA, 8-1 UFC, #1 IWMMAR) fights and the way that George St. Pierre (20-2 MMA, 16-2 UFC, #1 IWMMAR) does. There are two questions, though, that jump immediately to mind with the change of lightweight landscape at UFC 118. The first is a macro-question about trending and, honestly, I don’t feel like I’m in a good position to answer questions about the trending in MMA towards wrestler-centric with only two (maybe three, if you make a precarious argument about the heavyweight division) divisions showing that trending.

The second, though, is about the UFC lightweight title picture, and that’s somewhere worth talking about.

A friend mentioned to me during the fight that if Gray Maynard (10-0-0-1 MMA, 8-0-0-1 UFC, #6 IWMMAR) doesn’t get a title shot after his win over Kenny Florian (14-5 MMA, 11-4 UFC, #3 IWMMAR), it will be a shafting the likes of which we haven’t seen in a while. Of course, that’s true. Maynard just beat the organization’s top gatekeeper (the top ranked lightweight not involved in the card’s title fight) and did it convincingly. Not to mention Maynard is the only fighter to beat the current champion, a fact which allows for some level of potential hype by promoters.

There’s actually an argument that you can rank Maynard #1 in the world, as it stands. Of course, that will never happen. Even experts, to some degree, rank fighters on the aesthetics of the fighting style, and while they’ll revert to ranking Edgar at #1 because he holds the belt, it’s hard to argue that Maynard is particularly fun to watch. Those who complain about St. Pierre’s recent title defenses would likely have issues with Maynard if he ever became UFC lightweight champion, and it does become difficult to sell pay-per-views when people don’t feel like they’re going to see a competitive or invigorating performance. Of course, it’s not going to shake the hardcore fans, and those of us who have enjoyed watching St. Pierre dominate Dan Hardy (23-7-0-1 MMA, 4-1 UFC, #5 IWMMAR) and Thiago Alves (17-7 MMA, 9-4 UFC, #4 IWMMAR), but we’re not really a demographic the UFC has to seriously worry about losing, so we don’t carry much weight in that regard.

The argument against giving Gray Maynard a shot is not based on merit, which he certainly has more than any other fighter in the division. It’s based on sales. It’s not relevant, but it is worthwhile to bring up the UFC’s potential concerns about Gray Maynard becoming UFC champion. The UFC lightweight division is wide open. Someone like George Sotiopoulos (13-2 MMA, 6-0 UFC, #8 IWMMAR) or Evan Dunham (11-0 MMA, 4-0 UFC, #9 IWMMAR) could easily step into the title picture and take the belt from either Maynard or Edgar, and any of those guys could hold the belt for three or four years. Sotiopoulos is the oldest out of that pool, at 33, and that hardly prohibits a multiple year run as champion.

At 28, Edgar could easily defend his title against all of those guys, though some part of me doubts it, given the volatile nature of the sport. I’m trying to decide whether I’m taking Edgar vs. Maynard in the upcoming fight. It usually takes me a few weeks to make up my mind on this kind of thing, but for the moment, I’m leaning towards Edgar. I just can’t work out whether that’s because I think he’s a more desirable UFC champion that Maynard, but we’ll come back to that. For now, what’s worth thinking about are the other potential contenders, the guys who are next.

Dunham will be taking on Sean Sherk (33-4-1 MMA, 7-4 UFC) at UFC 119, a fight that could set up talk of him becoming a title contender in the same way that Sotiropoulos’ win over Joe Stevenson (31-11 MMA, 8-5 UFC) at UFC 110 set up talk about bringing him into the title picture. After all, Edgar’s win over Sherk is what initially tossed Edgar into the title picture for many, even after his loss to Maynard. All of this will be discussed at length as we start to see the title picture unfold more clearly.