Notes on Fedor vs. Werdum

So, I confirmed my credential for the June 26th event in San Jose, which means that MMAOpinion will have live coverage of Strikeforce:Fedor vs. Werdum, courtesy of yours truly. I figured it was worthwhile, a week out from the fight, to post some thoughts on the matchups on the card.

Josh Thomson’s return against Pat Healy is probably the least interesting main card fight, and not because its the least competitive. It will definitely be one of the closer bouts on the main card. I tend to think that Josh Thomson should be able to take this one home and earn a third fight with Gilbert Melendez. Healy is a beatable opponent, and if Thomson wins, a rubber match with Melendez for the Strikeforce lightweight title is definitely in order.

The rematch between Scott Smith and Cung Le will be exciting. The first fight was a war between two awesome strikers, and as long as the two fighters come to throw bombs, it should make for a great bout. Smith is a classic brawler and Le is a more conventional, reserved and technical striker. If they come with the intention of actually finishing the fight, then it will be a great fight. There’s a possibility that, after being knocked out, Le will fight a little more conservatively, and that could make for a long decision with Smith chasing him around the cage, but I think realistic expectation is a brawl. That’s what I’ll be hoping for. The last time I saw Scott Smith fight live, it was the fight with Benji Radach, which remains one of my favorite bouts I’ve ever seen in person. Hopefully Smith puts another on that list.

Cyborg vs. Jan Finney is a disappointing piece of matchmaking. Those who see some of the behind the scenes of women’s MMA know how hard it is to ink contracts, but from what I understand, Strikeforce didn’t work that hard to find someone really tough for Cyborg. Instead, they brought up an unranked 135 pound fighter to take on the top 145er in the world. Expect Cyborg to maul Finney, and it’s not because Finney’s not tough, it’s because Cyborg is just that good. She really is the best 145 pound woman in the world, and while there are potentially some tough fights for her in the division, Finney isn’t one of them.

Fedor vs. Werdum should be almost as lopsided as Cyborg vs. Finney. Werdum has an out. He has a great groundgame, and could probably submit Fedor in pure grappling. Still, I think that it’s obvious that Fedor is the superior fighter. He can knock Werdum out easily and, if the fight hits the ground, I can’t imagine Werdum successfully keeping Fedor locked up and controlled, given the well known effectiveness of Fedor’s ground-and-pound. It’s hard to see Fedor losing to Werdum. Overeem, maybe; but not Werdum.