Mitigating Factors: Couture vs. Vera

I hate simple answers. Those familiar with my forum background know that one of my trademarks are explanations that border on excessive. Maybe that’s why, even on a weekend when one of the only two boxers in the world that still interest me is fighting, I’m still fascinated by the prospect of Randy Couture (16-10 MMA, 13-7 UFC, #7 IWMMAR) vs. Brandon Vera (11-3 MMA, 7-3 UFC).

I know who I’ll be rooting for. I’ve always been a fan of Randy’s, as he’s demonstrated an incredible ability to evolve as a fighter, and he’s one of the cerebral warriors that I think we need more of in MMA. But I’m not convinced he’s going to be able to beat Brandon Vera.

Randy Couture is a legend, but legends age, and as great as it seems to say that Randy is timeless, I need to be sold again, largely because of the weight cut. Certainly, more than anybody in the history of the sport, Randy Couture has staying power. But I’m not convinced that Randy’s prowess can last forever, and it seems less likely, as well, as he drops to lightheavyweight.

Mark Coleman returned to the UFC and has had a few impressive showings, but he doesn’t have the same expectations that have been laid on Randy (he’s also younger, but I don’t think that their age difference is significant). Randy is dropped down a weight class, and he’s expected to beat a young (in terms of his career; Vera’s 32 and hardly a nubile), athletic fighter searching for his identity.

One of the biggest factors for me is the weight cut. It completely drained Coleman, and Randy hasn’t cut to 205 since February of 2006 (almost four years ago). Of course, Randy’s not as big as Mark, and doesn’t have the suspicious history of bulk massive muscle additions, but it’s still hard to predict how Randy’s going to do with the cut at his age.

Coming off of two wins against bigger heavyweights has definitely made it necessary for Randy to drop down to 205, and if his cardio is all together and his weight cut wasn’t too difficult, I expect an incredible performance. I always do.

However, the other mitigating factor is Brandon Vera’s game.

We know about Brandon Vera’s muay thai. We know he has limitations, or at least has had them in his recent performances. It seems easy to say that Randy is going to have trouble beating out Vera on the feet and outgrappling him. After all, Randy’s beaten bigger and better strikers (Vitor Belfort, Pedro Rizzo and Tim Sylvia) and has beaten some very solid grapplers (Gonzaga is a BJJ blackbelt, and Mike Van Arsdale, who Randy submitted, is an Abu Dhabi veteran).

The thing is, the guys that Vera beats make it hard to see what kind of game plan will be effective. The apelike Keith Jardine is pretty much impossible to replicate. It’s not as though Randy can magically grow the reach advantage Tim Sylvia used, or the weight he used to grind on Vera. And similarly elusive is a grappling game on the level of Fabricio Werdum.

That said, just because we haven’t seen a fighter with Randy’s toolbox beat Brandon Vera doesn’t mean Randy won’t beat him. In reality, I think Randy should be a favorite, and I think he’ll win, but the nature of that win is hard to pin down, because it really depends on what’s going through the head of Couture, and where the fight ends up, as well as the various uncontrollable factors in the fight itself.