UFC 105 Preview and Prediction: Couture vs. Vera

Over the past few days I have been breaking down tonight’s UFC 105 fights.  To be completely honest, I am not very crazy about tonight’s card.  I will break that down in a post later today, but before that lets get to the main bout featuring a living legend and someone that is attempting to prove he is the truth.

Brandon Vera could be known as the Jacksonville Jaguars of the UFC.  By that I mean inconsistent.  That may sound a bit harsh but since his key victory over Frank Mir in 2006 he has been up and down.  After the Mir win, he has defeated three people.  Two of which have been cut from the UFC since.  The only other was against Krzysztof, who is fairly new to the UFC.  Experience is experience, but fighting in local shows is not the same as the UFC.  Krzyzstof is still very green.

If we rewind a bit, Brandon Vera was the premier heavyweight breaking onto the scene.  He was young and had the firepower to do very well in the UFC.  He was touted as the next big thing, but never truly matured into that.  You can blame the contract disputes and what not, but it was his mental game that  suffered.

Fast forward, Vera is on the second longest win streak of his UFC tenure.  Mentally he was not prepared to fight at UFC 105, he actually told them no…until they told him he would be fighting Randy.  I will say this, with all of the hate and discontent coming Vera’s way…  A motivated, in shape, and mentally tough Brandon Vera could be a force to recon with!

Randy Couture…Hall of Famer, Olympic alternate, Mr. Extreme Couture, do I need to go on?  The truth is, Since 2005 Randy Couture has become one of the most loved fighters in the history of the sport.  However, in his long UFC career he has lost two fights in a row twice.  The first was in 2002 after he lost to Ricco Rodriguez and Josh Barnett.  This time around Randy has lost two consecutive fights to Brock Lesnar and Big Nog.

Trivia question…who knows what Randy did the last time he lost two in a row?  He dropped to 205 and knocked out a guy by the name of Chuck Liddell.

Randy is trying to find magic once again by dropping to 205.  Brandon presents some of the same problems that Chuck did, he will more than likely have a similar game plan this time around.

Prediction:

This prediction is going to be longer than the others…  If Randy employs the same game plan that he used against Brock and Nog, he will lose.  No question about it, he can not stand and bang with Vera.  Vera has a solid stand up game.  He will be longer and be able to control the fight if Randy can’t get it to the ground or in the cage.

That being said, Randy will be looking to get the fight either into the cage, in close quarters, or on the mat.  This would put Vera’s stand up game at bay and give Randy the chance to control the fight and get the win.

In terms of a prediction I am going this way.  Vera will be looking to use his leg kicks to control Randy.  One thing Vera will not be able to do is kick to the body, when he does Randy will trap the leg and take the fight to the floor.  I think Randy will be able to counter some of the striking and use his wrestling to control the fight.

Randy Couture by split decision, but he will be in trouble at some point in this fight.

If Randy wins, it will be a slow and boring fight.  If Vera wins it will be the KO of the night…