UFC 104: Machida vs. Shogun Preview

Overall, UFC 104 looks like a solid event. It features a few questionable main card fights, but also will feature some awesome undercard bouts that, we can only hope, will get broadcast with the rest of the event. Assuming a number of quick finishes on the main card (which is a distinct possibility), the overall quality of the event will be good.

There are a few broadcast decisions that are a little befuddling, but I’ll get into those on a matchup by matchup basis.

As always, there are some fights that are less interesting than others. I find it difficult to get excited about the return of Razak Al-Hassan (7-1 MMA, 0-1 UFC), especially against a fighter like Kyle Kingsbury (7-2 MMA, 0-1 UFC). It could go either way, though I see it going to Kingsbury, given the superior boxing, but anything can happen in a battle of unknowns.

Similarly, the UFC debut of solid heavyweight Chase Gormley (6-0 MMA) against a decent kickboxer and general giant in Stefan Struve (17-3 MMA, 1-1 UFC) doesn’t really have an impact on the UFC heavyweight division, at least not right away. Beating Struve will build a reputation for Gormley, and beating Gormley is a good step forward for Struve, but neither is in a position to really make a splash in this fight. Gormley, the strong, explosive true heavyweight will probably overwhelm Struve with his power, but against a guy who’s damn near 7’0, it’ll be interesting to see how he copes with the reach.

Continuing the trend (but really the last of undercard fights that I don’t care about) Jorge Rivera (16-7 MMA, 5-5 UFC) will look to put together another solid win against Rob Kimmons (22-4 MMA, 2-1 UFC). A win would put Rivera over the 50% mark for the first time since his UFC debut. Kimmons recently renegotiated his UFC contract, and he’s looking to move from being an undercard fighter into being an Ultimate Fight Night low main card competitor, but that’s a minor transition.

Yushin Okami (23-4 MMA, 7-1 UFC, #4 IWMMAR) will be stepping into the cage again for the first time since December of 2008. A lot of people were surprised that Okami wasn’t featured on the main card, given his potential contender status and the quality of his opponent. Chael Sonnen (23-10 MMA, 2-3 UFC, #9 IWMMAR) is a great opponent for Okami, but there’s a good chance the fight is going to end up as a wrestling and grappling match, and so the punch happy fans at the Staples Center may not appreciate the matchup. That said, I’m a little annoyed that this kind of fight, which should be seen as a big ladder climbing fight for both Okami and Sonnen ended up on the undercard, despite understanding the logic. Okami is and should be the favorite in this fight, but never underestimate Sonnen’s ability to play the spoiler, especially against an opponent who generally enjoys a wrestling advantage. If Okami does try to grapple with Sonnen, he could very well lose. I think Sonnen is a good and reasonable pick for those looking to be on this fight, and I’ll be pulling for him.

Antoni Hardonk (8-5 MMA, 4-3 UFC) vs. Patrick Barry (4-1 MMA, 1-1 UFC) is one of those fights that should be on the undercard but, frankly, I’m really glad this fight is being broadcast on Spike. Two world class kickboxers are generally fun to watch when they go at it, and hopefully they’ll make the decision to stand and trade, instead of going to the ground and putting on a sloppy submission fest. Hardonk and Barry both have solid K-1 backgrounds, though I think Hardonk is more accomplished and has dealt with much better competition (going the distance against Badr Hari and Remi Bojanski). But it’s hard to call this one, too, as a devastating strike could change the course of the fight. Hardonk is a good bet, as long as he stays at range and uses his devastating leg kicks.

Ryan Bader (9-0 MMA, 2-0 UFC) will look for a third UFC win against Eric Schafer (11-3 MMA, 3-2 UFC), who’s truly a respectable veteran and gatekeeper at this point in his career. If Bader beats Schafer, he can start to make an argument for himself as a top ten lightheavyweight, especially with a lot of fighters in that division losing prominence. It would also mark his second win in the UFC against a respectable BJJ blackbelt, and those wins really mean something to a guy with a wrestling background. Being able to effectively avoid the ground game instead of relying on lay-and-pray tactics to get the judges approval is important. We’ll get to see this fight, and hopefully Bader will look to turn it into a slugfest. If he succeeds, he’ll be in good shape. If this fight hits the ground, though, he may be in trouble against a seasoned veteran of submission fighting.

Anthony Johnson (7-2 MMA, 4-2 UFC) is a lot of things, but boring isn’t one of them. This is one of the few fights I really expect to be lopsided, and I expect a bigger, more powerful Johnson to just overpower a small Yoshiyuki Yoshida (11-3 MMA, 2-1 UFC), who’s going to find it hard to use his judo throws and submissions against a wrestler with the build Johnson has, and the power. Johnson hits like a truck and is one of the largest welterweights the world has to offer. If he can stay off of the ground and use his continually evolving standup, he should flatten Yoshida.

Joe Stevenson (30-10 MMA, 7-4 MMA) isn’t going to have an easy time beating Spencer Fisher (23-4 MMA, 8-3 UFC), but Stevenson is going to be the far superior grappler in this fight. As the better wrestler, he should be able to get the fight to the ground and, if he continues to display the freakishly technical and explosive grappling and control we saw during his fight with Nate Diaz, he’s going to put Fisher in some really tough spots. Diaz, a respectable BJJ fighter, was able to keep pace for parts of the fight with Joe Daddy, but Fisher, realistically, doesn’t have the same level of grappling that Diaz does. Fisher’s only real hope is to keep it standing and, against Stevenson, that’s going to be tough.

Gleison Tibau (19-6 MMA, 5-4 UFC) can breathe a little easier knowing that he’s not going to be fighting former UFC lightweight champion Sean Sherk. The UFC brought in Miletich product Josh Neer (25-8 MMA, 4-5 UFC) on short notice after Sherk sustained an injury. How this fight remained on the main card with a fight like Sonnen vs. Okami on the undercard is beyond me, but that’s how it goes sometimes. Tibau should be in good shape against Neer, who’s a tough wrestler, but certainly submittable. Tibau’s transition game on the ground has been pretty devastating, and that will probably be what finishes Neer.

The co-main event fight between Californian Cain Velasquez (6-0 MMA, 4-0 UFC) and former IFL warrior Ben Rothwell (30-6 MMA) will be a solid bout between big men. Rothwell will have a noteworthy size advantage (3 or 4 inches taller and at least thirty pounds heavier) and an advantage in the standup. Velasquez, as the NCAA Division I All-American, will have the superior wrestling. If he chooses to take the fight to the mat, he may not have an advantage in the submissions, but he can deliver enough punishment and stave off attempts from Rothwell, who isn’t really a dynamo off his back. If Rothwell can keep the distance from Cain and use his reach to do damage, he could definitely win this fight, but I think the easy forecast calls for a lay-and-pray victory from Cain, who probably won’t be able to finish Rothwell, given that he doesn’t have the heavy hands of some of his larger contemporaries (Brock Lesnar or Shane Carwin), but can definitely do damage from the top and keep the fight on the mat.

The five round title bout in the lightheavyweight division will mark the first defense of Lyoto Machida (15-0 MMA, 7-0 UFC, #1 IWMMAR), who’s been hyped as the greatest lightheavyweight champion in a long time (if not ever). Machida won the title with a vicious knockout of Rashad Evans that still has a lot of people surprised by his power, which didn’t seem like that big a deal, early in his UFC career. Machida will look for another big KO against Chute Boxe product and former top ranked lightheavyweight Mauricio “Shogun” Rua (18-3 MMA, 2-1 UFC, #5 IWMMAR). Shogun has fallen from grace as the golden boy in the lightheavyweight division with an unimpressive win over Mark Coleman and a surprising loss to Forrest Griffin. Still, Shogun will definitely look to demonstrate that he’s legit in a fight with Machida, despite being a nearly prohibitive underdog. Machida is the safe bet, and it’s just a matter of the over-under with respect to rounds. Unless Shogun’s cardio is much better than it was in the Coleman fight, round two is probably a good over-under bet.

The title fight will be interesting, as a clear contender to follow Shogun doesn’t really exist right now, but it will definitely be interesting to see who emerges from the ranks of a very competitive division to see who challenges the man many believe represents a new generation of MMA fighters.