UFC Fight Night 19 Main Card Predictions

Tomorrow night the Cox Convention Center in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma will play host to UFC Fight Night 19. This card will serve as a lead into the 10th season of The Ultimate Fighter which will feature 16 heavyweights, including Kimbo Slice as they vie for the six figure contract.

There are many interesting fights on this card. Lightweight standouts Gray Maynard and Roger Huerta will battle out in what may be Huerta’s last fight for a very long time as he will leave the UFC to pursue an acting career. Here are my thoughts on the four main card bouts.

Nate Diaz vs. Melvin Guillard- Lightweights:

Diaz is riding a two fight losing streak going into this bout with Guillard. In losses to Clay Guida and Joe Stevenson, Diaz was in no way embarrassed or dominated. Guida laid on his for the entire 15 minutes of their fight at UFC 94 and Stevenson simply out grappled him at The Ultimate Fighter Finale 9.

Guillard has won both of his fights since returning to the organization a year ago. He has always had explosive power but seemed to make that one mistake that his opponent would capitalize and send him home with an L on his record. In his last bout against Gleison Tibau, Guillard showed some improvement with his ground game.

This fight should go one of two ways, if it goes to the ground, Diaz will submit Guillard. If this fight stays upright, Diaz could find himself looking up at the roof of the Cox Convention Center. Guillard has dynamite in his hands but Diaz is just as dangerous with his submissions. There have been reports that Diaz has had problems cutting weight, whether or not that is a ploy from his camp to throw Guillard off remains to be seen. I see Diaz slapping on a triangle somewhere in round 2. Diaz via second round submission.

Gray Maynard vs. Roger Huerta- Lightweights:

Huerta has a lot going against him here as Maynard may be next in line for a shot at the 155lb title currently help by B.J. Penn. Maynard is 7-0 with five of those wins coming in the UFC. He has defeated fellow top contender Frankie Edgar, Rich Clementi and New Jersey native, Jim Miller. Maynard showed tremendous boxing skills in his victory over Miller at UFC 96. Combine that with his stellar wrestling and it could be a long night for “El Matador.”

Huerta hasn’t fought since losing a unanimous decision to Kenny Florian at UFC 87 last August. Since then he has stated his desire to leave MMA for the time being and pursue a career on the silver screen. He played a role in the movie Tekken which is due for release sometime later this year. Huerta has solid all around skills but isn’t great in any one area like Maynard is with his wrestling. Being on the shelf for so long will no doubt play a pivotal role here as “The Bully” has fought twice since last October.

Does Huerta have what it takes to ruin Maynard’s shot at a title shot? A win here could open up the doors for Huerta to bolt the UFC and maybe sign with Strikeforce in the event his movie career doesn’t pan out for him. He has big name recognition as he was on the cover of Sports Illustrated back in 2007. Huerta would love nothing more than to play the role of spoiler while enhancing his own options but I just don’t see it happening. Maynard will get him down and pound on him as he rides out a decision victory. Maynard via unanimous decision.

Carlos Condit vs. Jake Ellenberger- Welterweights:

Ellenberger comes to the UFC with an impressive 21-4 record while finishing an outstanding 18 of his wins. He has fought for M-1, Sportfight, IFL and Bodog. His biggest wins have come against Brazilian, Jose Landi-Jons whom he knocked out in just 12 seconds. Training with Team Quest can enhance anyone’s game.

Condit made his UFC debut back in April and lost a split decision to Martin Kampmann. Condit is dangerous wherever the fight goes. Sporting a 23-5 record, Condit has never gone to a decision in any of his victories. He has won 10 of his bouts by knockout and 13 by submission. He recently made the move to Arizona Combat Sports where he trains alongside Ryan Bader, Aaron Simpson and C.B. Dollaway.

I would give the edge in experience to Condit as he has fought some of the world’s best including Jake Shields and Frank Trigg whom he defeated in 2006 with an armbar. I have to go with Condit here as he has experienced the pressures of fighting in the UFC as well as the WEC where he was their welterweight champion until they disbanded the weight class. Condit by unanimous decision.

Nate Quarry vs. Tim Credeur- Middleweights:

I like both guys as they come to fight, respect their opponents and leave nothing behind in the octagon. Quarry was last seen defeating Jason MacDonald at UFC 97 with a flurry of elbows that sent MacDonald packing and out of the UFC. “The Rock” as he is affectionately known trains with Team Quest and his only two UFC losses came at the hands of former middleweight champion, Rich Franklin and top contender, Demian Maia. When Quarry hits people it leaves a lasting impression.

Credeur holds an impressive 12-2 record and is a perfect 3-0 in the UFC. This will be his toughest fight yet in the organization but he has fought and lost to Quarry’s Team Quest teammate and fellow UFC middleweight, Chael Sonnen and Joey Villasenor in his second professional fight in 2002. “Crazy” Credeur has finished all 12 of his victories, 8 by submission and 4 by knockout.

I like Credeur in this one due to his versatility. While Quarry is a gamer and will show up to fight, at age 37 his best years may be behind him. This will be a very competitive fight and may go on to be fight of the night. I see Credeur winning a decision for the first time in his career. Credeur via unanimous decision.

So that’s that, should be an exciting and action packed card which includes 7 bouts on the undercard. Check back later this week as I analyze UFC 103 which will take place this Saturday in Dallas, Texas.