Nover Needs to Win, and Other Obvious Notes on the Upcoming UFN

Stevenson's spladle is something, fortunately, that Diaz won't have to worry about with Melvin Guillard.

Two weeks removed from the SpikeTV event that will include a showdown between the lisping, scum mouthed (but very entertaining) Nate Diaz (10-4 MMA, 5-2 UFC) and my favorite recovering coke-head Melvin Guillard (22-7-2-1 MMA, 5-3 UFC), I spent a little time scanning through the card and realized that there’s some potential for a handful of interesting bouts and a few worthwhile storyline.

First of, Diaz needs to post a win after being mercilessly spladled by Joe Stevenson (30-10 MMA, 7-4 UFC) . He’s on a two fight skid, and a third will make it hard for him to be seen as legit by any stretch of the imagination. Though he may have only lost a split decision to a very game Clay Guida (25-10 MMA, 5-4 UFC), Guida’s role as a gatekeeper makes it hard to justify the notion that Nate belongs in the top tier of a very competitive lightweight division. Beating Guillard would be a good start, as Guillard has put together a two fight winning streak that includes a split decision victory over Gleison Tibau (18-6 MMA, 4-3), who seems to have invoked the wrath of someone in the UFC brass, as he’s being matched up with former lightweight champ Sean Sherk (33-4-1 MMA, 7-4 UFC) at UFC 104 (a bout in which he is a prohibitive underdog).

TUF 8 runner up Phillipe Nover (5-2-1 MMA, 0-2 UFC), needs a win to stay relevant, and probably to stay in the UFC. Following the loss to Efrain “Hecho en Mexico” Escudero (11-0 MMA, 1-0 UFC), Nover got smashed in a little over a minute by Kyle Bradley (14-6 MMA, 1-2 UFC). Now, the fighter that Dana White touted as the next Anderson Silva (for reasons passing understanding) is on the chopping block. Sam Stout (14-5 MMA, 3-4 UFC) is hardly a gimme fight for Nover, as Stout’s a world class kickboxer who’s going to present a huge problem on the feet. If Nover gets stopped, especially by Stout (who has never finished an opponent in the UFC), Nover may very well be looking for a small show to pick him up.

C.B. Dollaway (9-3 MMA, 2-2 UFC) is not in danger of getting cut, but he is probably going to get the crap kicked out of him by Renzo Gracie disciple Dan Miller (11-2-0-1 MMA, 3-1 UFC). While Miller is coming off of a loss that saw him get dominated by superior wrestler Chael Sonnen (21-10-1 MMA, 2-3 UFC), and Dollaway has a similar style to Sonnen in that they’re both experienced collegiate wrestlers, there’s a difference between an All-American (Dollaway) and a two-time NCAA champion and Olympic alternate (Sonnen). Not to mention that Miller actually submitted a three-time NCAA champion in his last win, when he beat four-time All-American Jake Rosholt (6-1 MMA, 1-1 UFC). It’s fair, in pointing this out, that Miller’s jiu-jitsu and wrestling experience actually makes him a really tough fight for folkstyle wrestlers, and that Sonnen’s experience as an MMA fighter and Team Quest grappler had a lot to do with his win.

Brock Larson (26-2 MMA, 2-1 UFC) shouldn’t have much trouble continuing his undefeated run since returning to the UFC after a strong showing in the WEC. He should tear through UFC newcomer Mike Pierce (9-1 MMA) pretty easily. Pierce is a good fighter, but it’s hard to argue that he has the wrestling and submission skills to really handle a guy like Larson, especially after the three minute submission evasion clinic that Larson put on against Mike Pyle (17-6-1 MMA, 0-1 UFC) that saw him submit Pyle with an arm-triangle choke.

In one of the biggest fights (which I have intentionally save ’til last), Laura Prepon’s ex-boyfriend Roger Huerta (20-2-1 MMA, 6-1 UFC) will take on slow-cooking killer Gray Maynard (7-0-0-1 MMA, 5-0-0-1 UFC, #7 IWMMAR). Maynard’s tendency to win by decision will probably not be resolved in the fight with Huerta, but there’s little doubt that matching Huerta up with man who has played both protege to B.J. Penn (14-5 MMA, 8-4-1 UFC, #1 IWMMAR) and Randy Couture (16-10 MMA, 13-7 UFC, #5 IWMMAR) is punishment for spending more time in the star of That 70′s Show than the Octagon.

Huerta will be returning after a little more than 13 months. He left the cage after suffering his first UFC loss to Kenny Florian (11-4 MMA, 9-3 UFC, #4 IWMMAR) to “pursue a career in acting.” Now he’s back. We’ll see if his MMA skills have taken a serious hit from the time off.