M-1 Breakthrough: Bizarre Betting
By Josh Stein on Aug 27, 2009
Every once in a while I check up on the odds for upcoming events, but the odds for the upcoming bout between Muhammed "King Mo" Lawal (4-0 MMA) and Mark Kerr (15-10 MMA, 4-0 UFC) are bizarre.
Kerr is, and should be, a prohibitive underdog. Still, 4-to-1 is a prohibitive underdog. At 8-to-1 (+800), Kerr is a bet like I’ve never seen before. The chances of the fighter who is 2-8 in his last ten fights stopping an undefeated up-and-comer like Lawal are incredibly low. That said, Kerr is a monster and much larger than Lawal’s opponents. He’s the first real heavyweight monster that Lawal has faced and, while on the unmistakable winding down of his career, anything can happen. At 6-to-1, anything can make some money.
On the other hand, at -1100, it’s impossible to justify a bet on Lawal.
Filed Under: MMA
Comments (8)
Get 1 Now
Get Free Gear
I was a professional sports handicapper before I became a full time MMA writer. Not to toot my own horn, but I was one of the first to handicap MMA seriously ‘back in the day’. IMO, this is a pretty good line–much of linesmaking is not trying to gauge the relative odds of the proposition, but the public perception of the proposition. Kerr is viewed as a shot fighter, King Mo an up and comer. You’re correct that the ‘true odds’ should be a lot shorter, but if they were the book would get sided with money on King Mo. At this price, as you note there’s some interest on Kerr.
I’m going to start a series on MMA handicapping as in addition to myself we’ve got another couple of writers on staff that are MMA betting OGs. I’ll let you know when we get it up
Definitely let me know, Jim. I’m easy to get a hold of.
It’s shocking to see any odds at +800/-1100 this close to an event. Usually, in the early going when the hardcore betters come out, stuff like this happens, but it’s kinda weird to see it this close.
I’d actually be more concerned about betting on any M-1 fight right now. I don’t trust them enough yet to put up real money on a M-1 bout. Same goes for Pride (when it was alive)…you never know when organized crime is pulling strings in the background. Maybe I’m just paranoid, who knows.
Brandt, you’re definitely paranoid, but that doesn’t mean they’re out to get you.
Haha, thanks.
I don’t think there’s any way to bet on King Mo here. One betting guideline that I go by is if a fighter’s odds are over +500 it at least warrants a small bet. In the crazy world of MMA, a puncher’s chance is usually worth taking the risk with a gigantic underdog.
$50 on kerr, now that’s reppin it OG style, word homey!!!
I guess then I too am repping it OG style, homey. Indeed. I am curious, though, are you trying to be funny? I honestly simply do not understand. The first 3,000 times perhaps it was cute, but now, are you a troll? 14?
I don’t mean to be belligerent, but I guess I have no choice, there really is no nice way to ask, I don’t think. Homey.