What’s Next for the Champ?

I wanted this to come out right after UFC 100, but unfortunately, right after the fights, one of my roommate’s dumb friends threw his lit cigarette into a trash bag and my apartment, along with the entire complex/building is no more. The article was the last thing on my mind. Now (semi) comfortable in my crazy parent’s house, I find the time to write the article that I wanted to do weeks ago.

The mammoth of a man in Brock Lesnar (#1 UFC), definitely seems unbeatable. Only a white belt, I may not be able to roll with the Gracies, but I can inform you that Jiu Jitsu is a system formulated to beat the bigger, stronger man. Trust me, as a rather large man myself, it is frustrating as all hell when my buddy who fights at 135 locks me in his triangle choke. But that is what Jiu Jitsu is made for, submitting an otherwise stronger, bigger opponent. Frank Mir (#2 UFC) is arguably one of the best submission fighters at HW in the world, earning his black belt from the unknown Ricardo Pires after only 5 years. Though his BJJ master is anonymous, Mir has proven he has the skills by beating the 1999 open weight class ADCC champion Roberto Travern in just over a minute by armbar, and also by submitting many others, including breaking Sylvia’s forearm. Unfortunately for Mir, Lesnar destroyed him.

Of the two great HW fighters that have a better submission game than Mir, one still needs to sign on the dotted line, and until then, I’m not holding out for Fedor v. Brock. That leaves Noguiera (#5 UFC), who looked tired and old when he fought last and I’m not willing to put my money behind him until I see what he can do against Couture (#4 UFC). Cro Cop (#7 UFC) has a slight possibility against Lesnar, but he is fighting Dos Santos (#9 UFC) next. Both these fighters would need an additional win after their fight for a title shot. Rounding out the list are Gonzaga (#8 UFC)  and Kongo (#10 UFC) who are both coming off losses and are going to have to play the roles of gatekeepers for a while.

Thus, leaving us with Carwin (#3 UFC) and Velasquez (#6 UFC), the two fighters who took out Gonzaga and Kongo are in a #1 contenders fight for the first shot at Lesnar. Both are decorated wrestlers, Carwin being a NCAA division II champ in ’99, and Velasquez was a 2 time All-American. I won’t go as far as to say that Cain has a glass chin, because one only has to look at Kongo to know that that guy hits really hard, but he did get dropped twice in his dominating performance over Kongo. What’s important to note is that he was able to collect himself and GNP a Unanimous Decision victory. Carwin got dropped in his last fight too, but was also able to persevere and stand back up with Gonzaga (who has a world class ground game) on top of him. He then proceeded to knock the daylights out of Gonzaga with a very short punch. Therefore, we have these two credentialed wrestlers locking horns, and one can only hope for a shootout on the feet. In that case, I’m picking Carwin to go on to face the champ. I’m guessing he has the stronger chin, the stronger punch, and excellent takedown defense to be the perfect person to hand Velasquez his first MMA loss.

That leads us too…

The Fight: Lesnar v. Carwin:

Size: It is widely said that Thiago Alves cuts from about 200-205 lbs to fight at 170. If he can gain 30-35 lbs in the day between weigh-ins and the fight, it is reasonable to assume that Lesnar and Carwin can gain even more. Lesnar likely weighs about 300 pounds come fight night. Carwin might cut, but he usually walks around at about 275, so Lesnar will still have a huge size advantage.

Experience: Looking at their records, Carwin seems to have an experience advantage. 11 fights on his record, and still undefeated, Carwin looks to have a lot of experience. This is especially true in the Heavyweight division where fighters like Mir have only 16 pro fights and 3 of them were for some form of the title. What isn’t so obvious in Carwin’s record is that by the time he would fight Lesnar, only four of his fights would be in the UFC. Lesnar might be only 4-1, but four of his fights are in the octagon, his one loss has been avenged, and for two of the fights, Lesnar trained for the championship rounds. He also hasn’t fought any scrubs, with Herring, Mir, and Couture all being good fighters. The only great names Carwin has toppled are Gonzaga and (soon to be) Velasquez. Lesnar takes the experience advantage, even accounting for his short career.

Speed: When we order this PPV, we won’t be expecting to see a fight like Torres v. Bowles. Heavyweights tend to be more strong than fast, more powerful than technical. However, in Lesnar and Carwin, we will see two freaks of nature because they are both very fast. Seeing Lesnar sprint across the cage after breaking Herring’s face was scary. That man has speed. However, don’t count out Carwin in the speed department because he is quick as well.

Cardio: In Lesnar’s only fight that went to decision, he didn’t seemed gassed at any point. It is also important to recognize that laying on top of someone isn’t very energy consuming, but Lesnar has been training for five round fights and he won’t come into the octagon out of shape. Who knows if Carwin has great cardio? You tell me! The guy hasn’t made it out of the first round yet. He has thoroughly destroyed all of his opponents and has taken less than five minutes to do it each time. If Carwin can beat Lesnar in the first round, his cardio obviously wouldn’t matter, but as a NCAA champion I’m going to guess that he trains hard and will be in excellent shape.

Ground Game: Lesnar was a NCAA champion. Carwin was a NCAA division II champion. Lesnar wrestled stiffer competition, but Carwin is still a monster on the ground. He also has submission wins by Guilotine (2) , Rear Naked Choke, and an armbar while Lesnar’s only submission is due to strikes. Lesnar is going to be better on the ground and if Mir couldn’t submit him, Carwin won’t be able to lock something in. Lesnar is advantaged on the ground if he can take it there.

Striking: Mir isn’t a renowned striker but for the few seconds he did get to stand against Lesnar, he made Lesnar look like a fool. Lesnar ducks his head and barely watches where he is throwing his hands. He doesn’t have any kicks in his arsenal (that leg kick in the opening seconds against Mir was pathetic). Lesnar is the best heavyweight in the UFC right now, but he is probably one of the worst strikers (at least while standing). Don’t get me wrong, if he hits you, you are going to be hurt, but with proper footwork and head movement Carwin could probably avoid the hardest of Lesnar’s powerful shots. Watching Carwin knock out Gonzaga reminded me of the scene in Kill Bill Vol: 2 where Thurman’s sensei asked her what she would do if her opponent was close to her. She had to learn to be devastating within inches of her opponent and Carwin showed he was with his KO of Gonzaga. Just ask any of the guys he knocked out or the one he submitted with strikes. Carwin’s only advantage is on the feet and if he can avoid Lesnar’s powerful but inaccurate shots, he will have a chance to really test Lesnar’s chin.

Chin: I’ve only seen Carwin really get hit once and it did knock him down, but it was a shot that should have knocked him silly. He was able to get right back up and return the favor to Gonzaga. I’m going out on a limb and saying the only way Lesnar gets Carwin to the ground is by taking him there, not by knocking him there. Lesnar’s chin is questionable. In his fights with Mir (I) and Herring, I don’t think either of them threw a punch. Couture hit him a couple times but he didn’t connect flush. That leaves Mir (II) to base Lesnar’s chin on and I wasn’t too impressed. After he let Mir stand up, Mir hit him with a combination that put him right back in wrestling mode. You don’t stand a guy up to take him down unless you don’t like something that happened. Lesnar didn’t like getting hit in the face and that knee left him gathering his senses for about 20 seconds on top of Mir before he moved him over to the fence and decapitated him. If Lesnar has an achilles heel, I don’t think it will be his Jiu Jitsu defense, because I don’t see him getting subbed for a long time. His weakspot is going to be his chin and Carwin might be the one to prove that to all of us.

Lesnar’s Strategy: Lesnar will be out to prove that he is stronger, faster, and a better wrestler than Carwin and he will want to take him down, get on top of him, and make him look like Frank Mir after fighting him.

Carwin’s Strategy: Carwin will need to use his impressive wrestling resume to keep the fight standing. He also needs to utilize great footwork and head movement so as not to get hit with one of Lesnar’s 3xl gloves. If he can do all that, he will hit Lesnar with one of his 4xl gloves and the champ might go lights out.

Outcome: The reigning, defending, undisputed, heavyweight champion of the world is going to have his hands raised after this one. I think this fight will be a lot like GSP v. Penn (II). Lesnar will keep tiring him out until he can actually get him down and pound him out. He will avoid getting hit and continually going for takedowns until he finally gets one (which probably won’t take to long). Fortunately for Carwin, he will finally make it out of the first round because he will be TKO’d in the third.