Brock Lesnar Post-UFC 100

He's come a long way from lifting Hulk Hogan, but the ride is hardly done.

There is a serious open question regarding MMA’s most controversial fighter, and while it will certainly take some time for that question to get answered, it almost certainly needs to be asked now: Where does Brock Lesnar (4-1 MMA, 3-1 UFC, #4 IWMMAR) go from here?

While the next batch of rankings will almost certainly reveal that Lesnar is either the number two or number three fighter in the world, depending on whether the panel thinks his performance warrants him being ranked ahead of Josh Barnett (24-5 MMA, 4-1 UFC, #3 IWMMAR), this won’t surprise anyone. In point of fact, it was a given going into UFC 100.

The problem is not that Brock Lesnar will not be the number one fighter in the world.

The problem is that not only does Brock not hold that #1 ranking, he can’t fight the guy who does and, as a result, can’t earn it. There has been a lot of discussion about Dana White attempting to organize a bout between his new UFC champion and Fedor Emelianenko (30-1-0-1, #1 IWMMAR). Simply, though, that’s not going to happen.

It’s not unusual for athletes to pray for a peer to lose and, in Lesnar’s case, that’s just about all he can do. Fedor hasn’t lost a bout since the ever-debatable stoppage against Tsuyoshi Kohsaka (26-18-2-1 MMA, 3-3 UFC) in December of 2000. No one will forget that Lesnar’s most recent loss was neither controversial nor that far removed. Since their respective losses, Fedor has compiled a record of 26-0-0-1 while Lesnar is 3-0. The short version is: Lesnar is not going to catch Emelianenko.

He’s also not going to fight the same level of competition that Emelianenko did with the same level of consistency that Emelianenko fought in Pride (a result of the tournament structure and regular bouts). Emelianenko fought 10 times in 2003 and 2004, with eight of those bouts in Pride, before he slowed down to what was fairly standard pace for heavyweight champions, after going to a no-contest in the finals of the heavyweight grand prix and successfully defending his title against the man he took it from.

Lesnar will only ever fight three bouts a year, four at the very best. That’s the reality of being a UFC champion. So the chances that he will ever lay claim to number’s like Fedor’s (even once Fedor has retired and is no longer competing in the rankings) are not very high. At best, Lesnar will look to post a UFC run similar to that of Anderson Silva (24-4 MMA, 9-0 UFC, #1 IWMMAR). Unlike Anderson, though, Lesnar will never be seen as invincible. We know how he can be beaten (at least one way), and so does he. Even if he shows improvement in submission defense, a major loss on the big stage will still hurt him.

If Fedor vs. Brock does happen, it will be the toughest test of Lesnar’s career (Fedor is the toughest test of anyone’s career, by virtue of being the best fighter in the world). But, for now, Lesnar has to work on maintaining his image as the new face of the UFC. Whether he looks to do that by being controversial and staying in the public consciousness or simply by ensuring that his performances are solid and impressive (and I would certainly perfer the latter), he’s going to have to  make a decision, because even if he’s not the top guy in the world, he’s the top fighter in the UFC, and that means everyone is going to be gunning for him, and that’s a level of pressure even a former NFL player and NCAA wrestling champion isn’t going to be used to.