My UFC 100 Main Card Predictions

With just over 3 days left until the big event I decided to give my two cents on the night’s main card bouts. If I have time over the next day or so I will try to go over the undercard fights as well. The night is full of great match-ups and the UFC has truly gone out of their way to make a statement as they move on to their next 100 events. I realize they have actually produced more than 100 pay-per-views, Fight Nights and Ultimate Fighter Finales but the number 100 is still a very big deal and should be treated with all the pomp and circumstance that will accompany such a huge night in the world of mixed martial arts.

Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Alan Belcher- Middleweights:

This will mark the debut of the Akiyama inside the octagon and he wasn’t given an easy first fight by any stretch of the imagination. Belcher has won his last two bouts and is 5-3 in the UFC. His last bout came against Denis Kang and although Belcher was losing going into the second round he did not get nervous and wound up catching Kang in a fight ending guillotine choke with less than 30 seconds left in the second round. He possesses good hands and solid submissions and he is growing more confident by the day. Akiyama is a Japanese born Korean judoka who has fought for K-1 Hero’s and Dream before signing with the UFC. He is currently 12-1 with a mixture of wins coming by KO and submission. He has defeated some very good fighters including Melvin Manhoef and Denis Kang. I look for a slow start as both fighters will look to feel each other out. I think by the time the second round is over Belcher will be laid out and Akiyama will have made an impressive debut. Akiyama via 2nd round TKO.

Jon Fitch vs. Paulo Thiago- Welterweights:

This will be Thiago’s second fight for the UFC and he is being thrown right back into the shark tank. Was his first round knockout over Koscheck a fluke or is this Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu stud for real? He will get tested early and often by a fighter many people still feel is the second best welterweight in the organization Jon Fitch. While many people have been harping on the fact that Fitch will be looking for revenge for his American Kickboxing Academy teammate’s loss, I think he will be focused on winning the fight for himself and not worrying about getting one back for the team. Fitch is aggressive and an extremely big welterweight and unlike Koscheck he has not fallen in love with knockout and will stick to what he does best, wrestling. I see Fitch frustrating Thiago with takedown after takedown and doing just enough damage to win a decision. Fitch by unanimous decision

Dan Henderson vs. Michale Bisping- Middleweights:

We have all seen it before the two coaches from The Ultimate Fighter can’t stand each other and they talk some smack before the fight and then when it’s over they hug and congratulate each other on a great fight. While I don’t see any extreme animosity here, Dan Henderson is a no nonsense kind of guy and Bisping may have tweaked him just a little bit too much with his behavior on the show and afterwards. Bisping is the brash, cocky Brit who has a lot of talent but who has never faced someone of Henderson’s ability. Henderson has a huge advantage in the clinch and in the wrestling department and is the stronger of the two. Bisping is younger, faster and extremely hungry. Bisping is not going to knock Henderson out, that is something you can take to the bank. One of two things will happen, Henderson will take Bisping down and inflict some damage all the while scoring points or Bisping will stick and move picking Henderson apart from the outside with jabs and punches that don’t hurt but will accumulate a lot of points. I am going to go with the former. Henderson by unanimous decision.

Georges St. Pierre (Champion) vs. Thiago Alves (Challenger) for the UFC welterweight championship:

Both of these man normally enjoy a significant size advantage over their opponents come the night of the fight. After they are done re-hydrating both fighters probably enter the octagon weighing in around 192lbs or so. Without a size or strength advantage each fighter will rely solely on their skill sets and game plans formulated by their coaches to win this fight. Both men are under the tutelage of great trainers. GSP trains under the world renowned Greg Jackson and Alves trains with American Top Team headed by Ricardo Liborio. Not much of an advantage there, although you may give Jackson a slight nod in formulating a slightly better game plan. GSP has world class wrestling while Alves has some of best take down defense I have ever seen. GSP has a karate background and stellar striking skills, Alves has top notch Muay Thai skills that have left men beaten and bloodied. It will come down to who breaks first. GSP’s has shown he can go five full rounds and still seem fresh. Alves has not had the opportunity to test himself in the championship rounds as of yet. Will Alves be able to frustrate GSP and stuff his takedowns long enough so that he can capitalize on a mistake made by the champion or will GSP break Alves will by being persistent and finally scoring a takedown and begining his brutal ground and pound assault? I see GSP breaking through sometime in the third round and punishing Alves for the rest of the way. GSP via 4th round TKO.

Frank Mir (Interim heavyweight champion) vs. Brock Lesnar (Heavyweught champion) for the undisputed UFC heavyweight championship:

A rematch from their first bout at UFC 81 in which Lesnar threw Mir around like a rag doll and pelted him with hammer fists until an ill advsied point deduction and stand-up from everyone’s favorite referee Steve Mazzagatti. Lesnar seemed to be on his way to planting Mir’s cranium into the octagon permanently until Maz decided that Lesnar was punching Mir in the back of the head so severely that it not only didn’t require a warning to the octagon rookie but it stopped him dead in his tracks and gave Mir new life. Mir capitalized and eventually caught Lesnar in a kneebar that ended the fight in just one minute and thirty seconds. Lesnar went on to destroy Heath Herring for fifteen brutal minutes and then knocked out returning champion Randy Couture to earn his share of the heavyweight crown. Mir parlayed his defeat of Lesnar into a spot opposite Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira on The Ultimate Fighter and became the first man to finish the vaunted heavyweight from Brazil. There is some animosity but there is also respect here as well. Mir knows what Lesnar can do and Lesnar damn well knows what Mir is capable of. Lesnar has come a long way since that fight which happened to be only the second MMA fight of his career at the time. I see him being a lot more relaxed and aware of his surroundings. Lesnar will bully Mir around the cage and when he has him softened up his will ground and pound him into oblivion. Lesnar via 3rd round TKO.

So there you have it, I see a night of surprising finishes as well as some predictable decisions. All in all it will be very entertaining.