Assessing the Threat: Thiago Alves

Georges St. Pierre (18-2 MMA, 12-2 UFC, IWMMAR #1) is far and away the greatest welterweight in the world, but the top ranking can disappear in a heartbeat, as Georges knows well. At UFC 100, Thiago Alves (16-3 MMA, 9-2 UFC, #2 IWMMAR) will look to take that top spot.

How big a threat is Thiago Alves to the reigning 170 pound king?

In the rare #1 vs. #2 title matchup, Alves shouldn’t be underestimated. At 25 years old, Alves is young and athletic, but it’s not as though Georges (at 28) is a geezer. Georges is coming off of a mildly controversial (though, frankly, it was more dominant than the world will probably remember) win over B.J. Penn (13-5-1 MMA, 9-4-1 UFC, #1 IWMMAR). Georges has successfully defended his title twice, including that win over Penn, and is 5-2 in UFC title bouts.

This will be Alves’ first shot at the title, but not his first time on the big stage, it’s definitely not his first time stepping in against a top welterweight (though, it’ll be his first time against the top welterweight). Alves stepped onto the big stage after coming on to the UFC scene at 2-2 with impressive wins over well respected veteran John Alessio (25-12 MMA, 0-3 UFC), Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu maven Tony DeSouza (10-4 MMA, 1-2 UFC), Kuniyoshi Hironaka (12-6 MMA, 1-3 UFC) and well respected UFC staple Chris Lytle (27-17-5 MMA, 6-9 UFC).

Those, though, are not the wins that illustrate the threat of Thiago Alves, only his growth into a muay thai wrecking machine that has destroyed many of the top UFC welterweights.

The threat of Thiago Alves is one of physical athleticism and powerful striking. As the only man to stop Karo Parisyan (18-5-0-1 MMA, 9-3-0-1 UFC) in the UFC, Alves put on a display that would quickly make him identifiable as one of the most destructive warriors in the organization. Alves then went on to destroyed nine time UFC welterweight champion Matt Hughes (43-7 MMA, 16-5 UFC, #5 IWMMAR) in the second round, and the fact that Alves weighed in four pounds over the 170 pound limit was quickly forgotten.

His recent win over Josh Koscheck (12-4 MMA, 10-4 UFC, #6 IWMMAR) helped remind people that this is a top tier fighter, and clearly established Alves (who was already considered a top contender at the time) the top of the pack.

The real issue, of course, is not what Alves has done (though that’s important, because it demonstrates what he’s capable of doing), but what challenges Alves presents and whether those challenges are going to force the current champion into a tough spot and break him.

As far as technical ability goes in this bout, a superficial glance at St. Pierre’s record shows no one with Thiago’s striking ability, and no one with his athleticism. While it’s certainly arguable that Jon Fitch (18-3-0-1 MMA, 9-1 UFC, #3 IWMMAR) is as athletic as Thiago, and as tough a test for St. Pierre, but Fitch was a wrestler (a very good one to be sure, but a totally different type of fighter than Alves) and his goal was to get Georges to the ground. Alves isn’t going to be shooting, he isn’t going to have to deal with the defensive wrestling of the welterweight champ.

The question in this fight needs to be: “Can Thiago Alves keep St. Pierre off the mat?”

If Thiago can keep this fight from turning into a wrestling and jiu-jitsu match, he should be in great shape, but anyone who goes to the mat against St. Pierre gets thoroughly demolished, and while Alves trains with some of the best jiu-jitsu fighters in the game, grappling is a well documented weakness, and there’s no reason to believe that he’d fare any better on the ground than Fitch or Hughes or Penn, all of whom are generally considered grapplers, and all of whom were unceremoniously pummled.

Alves’ best bet is going to be in the standup game, where he may very well ahve a decided edge over the current champion. Whether he has a technical advantage or not (and, in my opinion, he does), he certainly has the ability to finish the fight, even against a tough fighter like Georges St. Pierre. We know that Georges can be stopped on his feet, so, as far as Thiago goes, it’s about executing the gameplan, but that’s no small order against St. Pierre.

This will, without a doubt, be a potentially career defining moment in an already well defined career, and it will test how far Alves has come as a fighter. Whatever the outcome, the bout should be a war between two incredibly exciting welterweights looking to impose their gameplan on a world class opponent, and it’s hard to ask for more than that.

The Independent World MMA Ranking listed for B.J. Penn is in the lightweight division.