B.J. Penn on Machida vs. Evans

For those who haven’t seen B.J. Penn’s comments (after the 1:38 mark) shortly after the Machida vs. Evans fight at UFC 98, B.J. makes a valid point.

Machida, after all, couldn’t "do that sh*t to him."

As a recent commenter pointed to a statistical report of Machida’s career , the report clearly demonstrates that Penn was the most effective opponent Machida has ever fought. But, let’s be realistic, Penn fought a different Lyoto Machida than Rashad Evans.

What the statistics demonstrate is that Penn was relatively effective, but the operative word, of course, is relative.

Penn’s note, of course, is that Machida didn’t knock him (Penn) out when the two fought in K-1, but there are plenty of people Machida didn’t stop. Of course, David Heath and Sam Hoger don’t have B.J.’s visibility, and neither would have the audacity (I would hope) to claim that losing less decisively than Rashad means much of anything to their credibility.

Still, since B.J. raised the point, it’s only fair that we make a note of it.

Is B.J. the toughest opponent that Machida has fought?

Of course, the closest call Machida has had was the bout with Sam Greco, which he lost via Split Decision. Joe Rogan likes to point out that Machida hasn’t lost a round in his UFC career, which is a valid point, and it is also worth recognizing that this is not something that was true when Machida was fighting in K-1. This, it seems to me, is a poignent statistic for demonstrating Machida’s evolution as a fighter.

His style of karate, as the UFC fans know it, is conducive to winning round after round, but there was a time when an agressive fighter with good head movement (which B.J. is) could do some damage and effectively score points in the eyes of the judges. No such fighter has opposed Machida in the UFC, and perhaps no fighter exists (short of Anderson Silva, who’s head movement, in my opinion, is better than all of Machida’s potential opposition).

The other note is that, as a fighter, Penn is smaller and quicker than most of the guys that Machida has fought lately. This makes for a much more difficult matchup for the Brazilian, as his precision striking is tested.

There’s little doubt in my mind that if Penn and Machida met today, Machida would come out on top. Machida has gotten a little bigger since they first fought and has stepped up his ellusiveness and developed it into a more complete gameplan. Penn is still a tough matchup, as the statistics point out that he is one of three fighters to pass Machida’s guard, but Penn was a world jiu-jitsu champion, not an open weight champion, and I’m not convinced he can finish a fighter with the size and technical ability of Machida.

No where would B.J. be a decisive favorite, and given his recent failure capturing the welterweight title (all allegations of greasing aside), jumping up to 205 would be a jump I think B.J. should probably avoid.