Inside Irvin vs. McFedries: UFC 98

James Irvin put Terry Martin on the oxygen machine at UFC 54.

You don’t have to be the best fighters on the card to bring the best fight, and I think that the Irvin vs. McFedries matchup is going to be an excellent case study in what makes matchups between middle of the pack fighters so damn exciting.

Irvin is dropping down to 185 for this matchup, and while I’m not quite sure why (if he’s pursuing a shot at the UFC title or just wants to be a big guy in this division) I am sure that I’m happy this is his first bout. McFedries isn’t an immensly technical fighter, but no one can deny McFedries is exciting and explosive, which is the kind of matchup that Irvin wants.

In order to rebound from a tough loss to Anderson Silva at lightheavyweight, it’s only logical to seek out smaller competition, and McFedries will have a slight size advantage in this fight, beyond just the two inch height advantage, as I think his frame, while thick, is not packed quite as tightly as Irvin’s.

Both fighters, though, are brawlers in the truest sense of the word and they will step out looking to bang, and both have particular paths to victory.

What Irvin Needs to Do to Win

Irvin has good kicks, even if that’s what got him knocked him out against Anderson. I’m not convinced his confidence will be such that he’ll be comfortable throwing full fledged body and head kicks, but his coaching staff needs to make sure that he’s working the leg kicks and keeping McFedries from getting in close to mix it up, as Drew is going to try and drop the haymaker hooks that he brings that put fighters to sleep.

Of course, Irvin isn’t going to be ellusive or bobbing and weaving, he needs to engage when the opportunity presents itself and mix it up with McFedries immediately after delivering a solid strike or two, in order to capitalize on the damage. Still, Irvin’s road to victory is in the standup game, working the stiff jab and cross and cutting McFedries attempts to move in with the leg kick or the lead hook, or even the cross.

Because Irvin has never really demonstrated much of a ground game, either, he may be at a severe disadvantage on the mat against McFedries, who, while submittable, has a solid wrestling background and may be able to deliver some ground-and-pound, or work for the takedown if he gets hurt. Also, in order to avoid the takedown when he does damage to McFedries, it really helps Irvin to work from the outside.

What McFedries Needs to Do to Win

Drew can win this fight a few ways. I really expect him to be the better grappler, though three of his four losses are by submission. I’m not sure his coaching staff at Miletich Fighting Systems is comfortable with the idea of turning this bout into a grappling match, but by forcing Irvin to wrestle and by getting into the top position against Irvin to deliver damage, McFedries might do some solid damage to Irvin. McFedries has also been training with Terry Martin, who lost to Irvin, but only after dominating the first round with his wrestling, so that’s a distinct possibility.

The trick for winning the standup, which I’ve already alluded to, is to move in close enough to make use of the hooks. Finding that middle distances, where he forces Irvin to throw at a kind of awkward angle because he has longer arms, while still managing to stay out of the clinch, where he can’t do the same kind of damage. The middle distance allows him to deliver punishment.

I almost expect Drew McFedries to take a leaf out of the book of a vintage Mike Tyson, working in with head movement to work the body shots and hard haymakers when he can get them. Obviously, Tyson’s ability to use those strikes was on a different level, but it’s worth aspiring to for McFedries, looking to make a statement against a pretty solid opponent.

How I See it Playing Out

It always comes down to who can play out their gameplan, but I expect Irvin to be able to make use of his size and his power, delivering strikes when he needs them and eventually delivering those single blows he’s become known for.

Irvin doesn’t really work combinations, and that can be a problem against a guy with a quality coach, especially in the striking, and Pat Miletich is definitely a guy who understands the significance of throwing punches in bunches, and will have an approach for working around the shots, but I’m not convinced that McFedries is going to be able to work around them.

While many of Irvin’s opponents are alleged to have glass jaws (a label often and, in my opinion, unfairly applied to Houston Alexander) a lot of that  has to do with the simple observation that the guy hits really hard, and he only needs to catch McFedries slipping once, and I think he will, possibly in the second, but it could be earlier, could be later, depending on when the opening presents itself.