Thales Leites: The Overlooked Contender

The top contender for Silva's blet is not a paper warrior.

Many people I work with, many people I respect, are overlooking Thales Leites.

That’s not to say there isn’t an argument against Leites. He only barely beat Nate Marquardt, his debut in the UFC was less than spectacular and he really hasn’t shown the consistancy, charisma or, generally, the level of explosiveness that I think people would like him to.

He didn’t finish Pete Sell, who he really should have been able to submit, and he couldn’t finish Marquardt who, while a great grappler, was pretty easily destroyed by Anderson. These two fights, as well as the unanimous decision loss to Martin Kampmann in his debut (which, anyone who know about Leites beforehand knew wasn’t supposed to happen) have made it difficult to respect Leites as a contender.

All that said, I’m worried people are missing what’s so incredibly about Leites, what makes him such a threat.

If you ask people who the premier grappler in the 185 pound division is, most people are able to, correctly, identify Demian Maia, who’s next in line for the title, but most don’t really know Leites’ game, which, in my opinion, presents some very unique problems to Anderson.

On the feet, Anderson is a wizard, and should destroy anyone at 185 pounds without issue. He has proven that he’s no slouch on the ground, either, but if anyone’s going to beat him, it seems, that’ll be where it happens.

Leites has a transition game that I find absolutely incredible. His destruction of Floyd Sword via arm triangle was an excellent demonstration of a quick game. The truth is, I don’t see Leites submitting Anderson, because I, like most, don’t see him winning. Anderson has demonstrated that he is a solid wrestler, and has really only been taken down by guys with great wrestling, but if Leites manages to get the fight to the mat, he may be able to exploit one of Anderson’s errors in transition.

The real problem for Leites may not be a problem at all, but it’s one that has crossed my mind a few times, and that’s simply that Thales uses the clinch to get to the mat. It cannot be expressed enough, Anderson is the one fighter in the world that I’d least like to enter the clinch with. The man has knees that hurt to watch, and he’s capable of landing them from a lot of angles by virtue of his very long legs.

If Leites can keep Anderson in the judo clinch, which is where he wants to be, then he may be safe, but that’s a dangerous game. Apart from the fact that closing the distance on Anderson is always an issue, as he can do a lot of damage at range, and if he does wrap the thai plum around the neck before Leites is able to hook an arm (which is a distinct possibility) then the fight will be over quickly.

The game plan for Leites looks like this:

• Don’t get punched in the face.
• Get to the clinch with underhooks or the over-under without getting caught in the thai plum.
• Work for dominant position. Don’t get caught with an upkick.
• Look for extensions of the arms in transition to sink in an armbar.

Now, there are a lot of things that Leites has to be careful not to let happen, but he can’t be too cautious. He can’t let the fight stay standing too long, and he can’t just sit in Anderson’s guard, because if Anderson closes that guard up, it could present a lot of problems. Being tentative gives Anderson time to work. Being reckless gives Anderson openings. We’ve seen both cause serious problems for opponents.

If Leites can find that medium, then he may have a shot, and that’s worth considering. Still, it’s hard to imagine, as the medium is a difficult one to attain, especially when thinking too hard about it (as that can cause one to lead towards being over-cautious) or tries not to think about it at all (as forgetfulness is sometimes tantamount to recklessness).

It’s a dangerous game, but one Leites has the opportunity to play. So let’s not forget that when Anderson steps in on Saturday, he has an opponent, and that opponent has skills, and those skills can make a difference in the outcome of the fight.