Worst Case Scenario: Upcoming Title Fights

By Josh Stein on Dec 29, 2008

There are fights that we want to see, and fights that we don’t. There are matchups that can be fed to the masses, that sell pay-per-views and excited the casual fan, and drag in new viewers. Those matches, it turns out, don’t do anything for me, and if that sounds petty, it is.

I won’t blame Joe Silva for the despicably profitable pairing of Mir and Lesnar in their upcoming title bout. The rematch was inevitable, and we can only hope it won’t go five rounds. Lesnar and Mir are both exciting, both know what they need to do to win, and are both completely unworthy of the title Dana will try and push: the world heavyweight champion.

Now, my problem is not that people will suffer from the delusion that either is really a top ranked heavyweight, though the fans who only catch occasional blurbs about the sport on ESPN or in Sports Illustrated probably will, my problem is that whichever one wins, it is going to be bad for the UFC. I hear the argument every day, that Brock Lesnar is the best case scenario for the UFC, that having a charismatic professional wrestler capable of high caliber peacocking and exciting fights (which Lesnar delivers, even if the technique lacks) can only increase the popularity of the sport.

An increase without an increase in quality is an oxymoron. The reason why the sport has increased the way that it has over the course of the last eight years is because of increase in the level of talent and the level of competition. The problem with the UFC heavyweight division, which has long been tarnished by bad pickups and tough contract negotiations, is that it lacks the talent that it needs for it to be exciting, and the collapse of two of its major stars due to aging (Couture and Nogueira showed serious signs of career fatigue in their last bouts, though maybe those were just flukes) offers a very serious problem for a division that has only one or two fighters on the back burner.

A similar problem presents itself for the light heavyweight division, where Rampage Jackson is the almost unavoidable top contender for the title, though Lyoto Machida fans will cry out with deserved rage. I won’t argue that Rampage and Rashad Evans, are exciting fighters, Evans has certainly made an effort become watchable, but the matchup itself is profoundly uninteresting. I mean, we know exactly what’s going to happen. Both fighters are going to step in, looking to strike, whoever shows signs of being the inferior will look for the takedown. It will be explosive, but predictable, unless one of the fighters has a hallucination that he’s Rumina Sato and decides to throw out a flying armbar (that, admittedly, would make for an excellent spectacle).

It’s hard for me to care about a fight that doesn’t have a dynamic, or a division that’s only showing marginal signs of life. Both divisions are improving. Fighters like Carwin, Velasquez, Kongo, Hardonk and even the newly signed, very impressive Patrick Barry, make for great second tier fights, but don’t offer much when it comes to title contention. The middleweight division will suffer serious problems soon, as Anderson Silva machine guns through the remainder of the division, whether Yushin Okami or Demian Maia is next is not really relevant (though they both offer solid competition for Anderson), and we will all wait on Patrick Cote, but, unless someone burns onto the middleweight scene in the same way Anderson did or the UFC signs a top middleweight from another organization to show some competitiveness, it’s going to be hard to find a contender people can care about.

St. Pierre is in a similar situation, though the B.J. Penn fight may end up being the most exciting of the year, it really says something to me about their divisions when the UFC creates this rematch (though, I’m not complaining, it’s a fight I’ve wanted for a while now). After he fights Florian and Sanchez (assuming Diego’s skills translate at 155), there’s no one interesting left for Penn, as most of the division consists of wrestlers he’s tap fairly easily, if they could him to the ground without being knocked out. At 170, St. Pierre is both dominant and undisputed, though Thiago Alves will give us a nice matchup. Then what? Josh Koscheck, again. Jon Fitch, again. It’s just hard for me to find those fights at all desirable, especially if they’re going to go five rounds.

Competition can, and often does, arise quickly, but all five divisions seem to be slimming down like a bottleneck. The light heavyweight division may be salvaged by virtue of the fact that any title contender would be controversial in such a talented crowd, but if Wanderlei can’t get back on track, Liddell falls off the face of the earth, and something happens to one of the other contenders (like Thiago Silva suffering another injury or Griffin getting starched again), then it may be in a similar position to other divisions.

There’s no panic here, not even frustration. I’m always optimistic about the potential in the ranks of the UFC, but the rank and file isn’t what I’m worried about. As we step onto a bigger stage, with more attention, more viewers and more, inevitable criticism, I don’t want to have to acknowledge, ever, a critic who says “the title fights aren’t all that they once were.” More importantly, though, I don’t want to be that critic.

Filed Under: MMA

Tags: Brock Lesnar • Dana White • Frank Mir

About the Author: Joshua Stein is a writer and editor for MMA Opinion. He has worked as a photographer and journalist and has a number of print journalism credits. He also works as a moderator for MMAForum.com and a grappling columnist (covering judo, collegiate wrestling, Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and submission grappling) for profighting-fans.com.