K-1 World Grand Prix: Wars Over the Weekend

I don’t watch much boxing, and so while I may watch the main event of Pacquiao vs. De La Hoya, I won’t watch the undercard. Instead, I’ll be watching the K-1 Grand Prix, long after the show is finished (but I feel wierd watching in the daytime). It starts at 5:00 in Yokohama.

My picks are pretty straightforward, for the course of the tournament. Bar injury (and bringing Choi into the mix really throws a wrench into things, because he’s such a tough guy to fight in pure striking, and he wears his opponents out with his size), I think that this is going to be a really competitive tournament with some good knockouts.

At the top of the card is my favorite kickboxer, bar none: Peter Aerts, and as a die hard Peter Aerts fan, I’ll take him over almost anyone in the opening round. He’s going to have a tough fight in Badr Hari. Hari is the K-1 Heavyweight champion, but I hardly think he’s the best fighter in this tournament. He’s a great warrior, and this is going to be a tough opening round that, as much as I don’t like to admit it, could go either way, as Aerts is older than he once was, and Hari is young and constantly improving. Still, I’m sticking with Aerts, probably by decision.

Errol Zimmerman and Ewerton Texiera are relative unknowns, compared to the veterans on the card. Both have fought five times in 2008 on K-1 card, and both are 5-0. I’m going to take Zimmerman, because I think that the Dutch kickboxing style, as a general rule, gives the karate guys a lot of problems, but this is a great fight and could be a toss up. Both guys are looking to establish themselves, so its worth watching.

Gohan Saki vs. Ruslan Karaev is going to be a great fight, but the entire first round of K-1 tournaments are always like this. Karaev had a tough 2007 that included losses to Hari and Melvin Manhoef, but he had a great 2008 that saw him land in the title hunt while Manhoef watches from the sidelines. Saki comes and goes, but he’s had a good year, too. I’m taking Karaev, as the Russian has four straight knockouts and while Saki had a tougher matchup in the qualifiers for the tournament, he still struggled with Ray Sefo, and I would have liked to see a more decisive victory from him.

Remi Bojanksy and Jerome LeBanner are warriors, and both only lose once in a blue moon. LeBanner has shown some recent inconsistency, dropping three fights to Semmy Schilt over the last three years and an unprecedented loss to Junichi Sawayashiki. He beat Bojanski the last time they fought, but I’m not convinced that he’s going to be able to do it again. I expect LeBanner to win, but it will be close and on the judges scorecards.

The reserve fights hopefully won’t play in, but I expect a freakish Hong Man Choi to beat an aging Ray Sefo, on a six fight losing streak and I expect Manhoef to crush Paul Slowinski in an attempt to redeem himself after a tough tournament loss in Dream MMA.

Aerts should outclass the less experienced Zimmerman in the semifinals and LeBanner should beat Karaev badly. Those are relatively easy picks, and that’s usually how the semifinal round looks at a K-1 tournament, though upsets are always possible.

The final, Aerts/Hari vs. LeBanner/Bojanski should be a great war, and I hope everyone will watch it. If it ends up being Aerts vs. LeBanner or Bojanski, I expect Aerts to take it. If it’s Hari, I expect Hari to have a much harder time with an experienced, powerful LeBanner. That fight will probably go to the judges, but it will be fun to watch. I’m keeping my fingers crossed for Aerts, and hoping that he’ll take home another crown this year.