WEC 36 – Gambler’s Trinity

WEC 36 is tonight, and is looking to be a great event. I was meant to write this post earlier, but the odds weren’t out yet over the weekend. I guess better late than never. WEC 36 seems to be totally devoid of easy money – A lot of the fights are at even odds, or are close to even. Much like on UFC 90, I won’t be putting much on this card.

Anyways, here’s my thoughts on where to win a few bucks.

Please keep in mind – I am not giving gambling advice, and you should consult your financial advisor before you make any decisions.

The Safest Wager for WEC 36 is without a doubt Faber over Mike Brown. Faber blitzed Jens in the standup and on the ground in his last fight, and it’s a testament to the toughness of Pulver that he lasted to the decision. Faber looked like a beast in his last outing, and I expect he’ll have improved even more in the standing and submission aspects of the game. At -800, I don’t actually think it’s worth putting money on him, but if you have lots of money to spare and want an almost guaranteed return, bet on Faber, because he is pretty damn likely to win.

The Volatile Dog on this card.. Well, there are only three possible options – that’s how evenly matched the card is. We’re choosing between Mike Brown, Nissen Osterneck (who’s facing Jake Rosholt), and Leonard Garcia (fighting Jens Pulver). To be perfectly honest, I don’t recommend betting any of these underdogs. Mike Brown, to be perfectly honest, has a snowball’s chance in hell of beating Faber. I’ve never heard of Osterneck. He’s 5-0, and Rosholt is 4-0. Normally, if two undefeated fighters of similar experience are up against each other, I’d bet on the underdog. But the things being said about Rosholt make him sound like a weapon of mass destruction. Maybe the hype has inflated his odds, and Osterneck is worth a bet. I’ll probably lay down a nominal amount just in case, but Rosholt has so many people already on his bandwagon that part of me thinks that the hype must be at least somewhat true. Leonard Garcia, from a styles perspective, has a great chance against Pulver – but Pulver has been training with Matt Hume, and from what I’ve heard about Hume’s camp, you come out a much improved fighter. I think this will make the difference in this fight – I think we’ll see a sharper, more explosive Pulver, who will take the UD, or perhaps get a submission after realizing he can’t knock out the iron-chinned Garcia.

I guess the Volatile Dog would have to be Osterneck – but I don’t think he really has a decent shot at winning.

The Even Stevens – Without a doubt, Yahya and Maeda. Look for fireworks on the ground. That’s pretty much all that needs to be said.

Other opportunities: Well, this card is pretty devoid of any excellent betting opportunities. The best would be Filho against Sonnen – I feel like Paulo should be a bigger favourite, given that he made Sonnen scream last time round. Filho missing weight makes me a bit anxious though – He looked pretty out of shape in the weigh-ins. Regardless, Filho is a good bet at -140 against anybody but Anderson Silva at 185 at the moment. Other than that, I’m pretty much keepng my money WEC 36 clean.

This card is the worst in terms of gambling opporunity that I’ve seen in a while. However, WEC 36 is also looking to be an absolutely spectacular event – the fights are, on the whole, very evenly matched, and the lighter weight classes always provide more action-packed fights. My advice would be put your money in a 6 month CD and enjoy the event.