The Ultimate Fighter: Favorites, Dark Horses and Dead Fish

The more I watch the show, especially the first two episodes, where I got the chance to scout the fighters a little bit, I’ve been picking out my favorites for this season. I like to make predictions, so I figured I might as well through some of these names out there.

I generally classify my picks into favorites (which speaks for itself), dark horses (fighters with an outside shot, if they get the right matchups and the coaching helps round them out a little) and dead fish (fighters who could have the entire show exactly the way they want it, and still lose).

Lightheavyweight Favorites: Krzysztof Soszynski (Team Mir) and Ryan Bader (Team Nogueira)

Soszynski is my pick the win the lightheavyweight division, and seems to be the heavy favorite. With almost 25 pro fights, his record is mediocre, but many of those fights are at heavyweight, and he’s fought some guys who are legitimate in that division. He’s the oldest fighter in the house, and seems calm and respectable, but his power and all around skill, which he has developed training with Team Quest, makes him my pick to be the Team Mir standout at 205.

Bader is a physical force, and I was impressed with what I saw in his first fight. Obviously the fact that he’s already moved on to the next round makes him a pretty heavy favorite, but the reality is, he’s 7-0 with three submissions and three TKOs, he’s a two time All American and he’s a huge 205 pound fighter. While his versatility is suspect, versatile fighters don’t always win the show, and Bader seems like a slick and strong enough wrestler to present a lot of issues.

Lightweight Favorites: Efrain Escudero (Team Nogueira) and Junie Browning

Efrain is my pick to take the lightweight division, and he has been since I saw his first fight, where he was in control the entire time. Nog’s reassurance that his fundamentals on the ground during training sessions has helped reinforce that and his win to make it to the next round has made me pretty comfortable with that pick. There are a few tough matchups for Efrain (like my Team Nogueira dark horse pick), but I think that most of the fighters in the house will fall victim to his solid wrestling, good ground control and technically sound, while basic, submission game.

Whatever feelings you have about Junie Browning, he’s one o the better fighters in the house. Barring his stupidity getting him kicked off the show (though he seems to be well-protected, and I don’t forsee him getting kicked off in this upcoming episode), he’s a solid all around fighter. His ground game is interesting, and I’m not convinced that either his grappling or is striking is really dangerous, but the fact that he has a decent game both standing and on the ground makes him dangerous to all of the one dimensional fighters.

Lightheavyweight Dark Horses: Eliot Marshall (Team Mir) and Shane Primm (Team Nogueira)

Marshall is a substantial BJJ fighter and, from what I’ve seen, has the best jiu-jitsu in the ground. I’m not sold on his striking, but he does occassionally throw with some substantial power on his feet (as we saw with a nice kick he threw in that first fight against Karn). His ability to work patient and technical jiu-jitsu will present a lot of fighters who want to make him brawl, especially guys who aren’t as technical or have strict wrestling backgrounds. If Marshall wins his first round bout and gets stuck with Krysztof in the second round, he may be in trouble against a veteran fighter, but if he gets Bader in that second round, he could definitely catch the undefeated Arizona native. If Marshall makes it to the second round, he should avoid Vinny, as Vinny is the only guy who will out-jitz him.

Not many people were impressed with Primm’s first fight, and I don’t understand why. He has a few solid techniques, but what makes him interesting is that the few things he really knows how to do he does better than anybody else. He sets up that Japanese-style kimura from standing as a way of countering takedowns and he has a solid clinch and good knees. If Primm matches up with an opponent who is used to orthodox fighting, he could very well catch them in a move their not use to seeing. He may lose in the first round, drawing either Marshall or Soszynksi, but if he gets Vinny, I think he can take that fight.

Lightweight Darkhorses: Dave Kaplan (Team Mir) and Phillipe Nover (Team Noguiera)

Dave Kaplan is dangerous. His standup is probably the best in the house, and his ground skills are solid. I’m not going to count Dave out against any opponent, since he hits like a truck and his submission skills are enough to keep him out of trouble against some of the better jiu-jitsu guys. The one matchup that I think Kaplan should shoot for is a fight with Roland Delgado, as Delgado doesn’t seem to have any skill standing up, and Kaplan is compact enough to prevent takedowns. If he draws that fight, I see him getting an easy pass to the second round.

“Fainting” Phillipe hits hard, and his fight with Joe Duarte was one of the better fights on those opening two episodes. He’s aggressive, and that lends itself very well to fights with certain opponents, but it could be a problem if he continues to jump into that clinch game. If he jumps to the clinch game against the two primarily standup fighters on Team Mir, George Roop and Dave Kaplan, he may be in good shape, and can probably submit both of them on the ground, but if a fight with Junie Browning hits the ground, it will be interesting to see how Phillipe’s BJJ brownbelt fairs against blondie.

Lightheavyweight Dead Fish: Tom Lawlor (Team Mir) and Jules Bruchez (Team Nogueira)

In defense of picking the already eliminated Tom Lawlor, I don’t think he can beat any of the lightheavyweights in the house. He is entertaining, but his skills are not substantial, and all three of his lightweight teammates, are dangerous fighters. When picking between Lawlor and Vinny, a world class jiu-jitsu fighter, I have to say that I knew Lawlor wasn’t going to make the next round.

Bruchez is almost illegitimized by his only martial accomplishment listed on his profile. His only real martial arts background is a blackbelt in karate, and that is nothing compared to the rest of this seasons cast. His first round matchups include two substantial jiu-jitsu fighter, Vin and Marshall, and the heavy favorite to win the show. Even if his first matchup weren’t a death sentence, he was going to have a hard time with anybody of decent size and substantial submission game (given that his opponent in the first fight laid in one of the crappiest guillotine attempts I’ve ever seen and Bruchez’s RNC was escable with a hip out).

Lightweight Dead Fish: George Roop (Team Mir) and Rolando Delgado (Team Nogueira)

Even though these two guys fought each other in the opener, I have to say that I wasn’t impressed with either of them. Both are dead fish for the same reason: they are one dimensional fighters who are going to, inevitably, have to fight a guy who will take them out of their games. Roop has no real groundgame, though he can use his height to beat some people standing, and Delgado has a decent groundgame, but he would do well to train his hands with the Special Olympics boxing team.

Planning a gameplan for these fights is pretty easy and, unless they fight each other, I don’t see either of them advancing to the next round.

These are just some preliminary thoughts. I will have periodic updates on the show, because this season is looking interesting. Hopefully we’ll see some real fighters come out of the show, and not just television personalities.

Any emails on the article can be sent to josh@mmaopinion.com.