The Truth about Brock Lesnar

Brock Lesnar is the enforcer in the UFC heavyweight division. He’s a physical monster, and I don’t think that anyone is going to deny that he is, physically speaking, a specimen that we haven’t seen in a long time.

That said, when I opened my browser and went to open Sherdog to see what laughable title I could find and I saw a piece centered on Lesnar’s future in the heavyweight division I was confused. I don’t expect genius from Sherdog, but the way that they are looking at Lesnar seems a step beyond absurd.

I will say that his win over Heath Herring was dominant, but so was Jake O’Brien’s, and nobody (except Jake himself) called O’Brien the future of the heavyweight division. As far as I’m concerned, the fact that Lesnar couldn’t finish only proves further that he’s got a long way to go before he can be dubbed a top ten fighter.

The fact that the article lists “Key Win” as one of the stats left me to wonder, what has Lesnar got as his Key Win? The decision win over Herring? It was a big step for him in legitimizing himself, but it isn’t going to hurtle him into the top ten. Let’s face it, beating Herring by decision is not knocking out a Nogueira brother, and Lesnar’s ranking isn’t going to shoot up the way Sokoudjou’s did.

Still, I thought it was interesting to see the way Tomas Rios reflected on the upcoming matchups for Lesnar, some of my thoughts on the matchup Rios came up with:

Cain Velasquez (4-0-0) vs Brock Lesnar (2-1-0)

I’m biased, because I’ve seen Cain train, and I know alot about the way that he works his game. His ability to utilize the whizzer against a wrestler like O’Brien is impressive, but I doubt he can do anything against a bigger, stronger Lesnar, especially given that Lesnar is a national champion. Cain’s jiu-jitsu, if he does hit his back, is so-so, but I don’t think that he’s going to get lucky and catch a Frank Mir. He doesn’t have Frank’s skill off of his back. I think Lesnar could take this one by Unanimous Decision, but I don’t think it will happen, as the UFC tries to push their two up-and-comers, and likes the future of both of these guys, especially as Cain remains undefeated.

Gabriel Gonzaga (9-3-0) vs Brock Lesnar (2-1-0)

Gabriel Gonzaga is not just a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu blackbelt, he’s a world champion blackbelt, and that means something. It means that Gonzaga is going to be better than Frank Mir on the ground. Gonzaga’s guard game is substantial, and I’m not convinced (because Brock’s only UFC win is against a fighter who hasn’t submitted an opponent since choking out Giant Silva in 2003) that Lesnar is sufficiently prepared to fight a serious Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu fighter. There are alot of ways for Brock to lose this fight. Gonzaga has serious knockout power and dangerous submission skills. I can’t, in good conscious, call Brock the winner of a fight that he could only ever win with the help of the judges. Gonzaga gives Lesnar the chance to pick his poison, either knocking Lesnar out on the feet or putting him away with a technical submission display.

Fabricio Werdum (11-3-1) vs Brock Lesnar (2-1-0)

Werdum’s jiu-jitsu is a step beyond Gonzaga’s. His submission skills may not be enough to finish a fighter like Napao, though I think he can, but they are certainly sufficient, should he end up on his back, to finish a fighter like Lesnar, and his submission game is tailor made for Lesnar. The chance that Werdum could break down Lesnar in the guard are good, but even if he doesn’t, he can work the hipsweep and the kimura. Werdum will take this one in one way or another, submitting Lesnar regardless of how Brock tries to escape the guard.

Frank Mir (11-3-0) vs Brock Lesnar (2-1-0)

I’m usually okay with speculating on fights that aren’t going to happen, this one, though, isn’t really interesting. I think this fight, though, will be alot slower, because Brock won’t just bullrush Frank again. I don’t think that Brock will TKO Frank, but I don’t think he will get submitted either. This should be an easy three round win for Brock, but I’d love to see Frank catch him.

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (31-4-1) vs Brock Lesnar (2-1-0)

There are some days when anything can happen, and there are other days where a fighter is better in every facet of the game that his opponent. That is how this fight looks to me. Neither of these guys really throw kicks, so I don’t honestly believe that this will be anything other than a boxing match standing up, but if that does happen, Nogueira sees like the decisive winner. On the ground, it’s almost impossible to give this fight to Lesnar. Lesnar is going to step in against a submission game that is built to kill wrestlers, that is built off of the combo that the groundnpound feeds into, that Lesnar opens himself up to when he decides to attack, that armbar/triangle/omoplata sequence. Lesnar shouldn’t ever ask for this fight, because we know he doesn’t deserve to be a title contender, but if he does, as a result of his ego, he’s in serious trouble.

It’s hard to give Lesnar a shot in a division so well constructed out of submission fighters. While alot of the serious heavyweights are gone, the ones that remain are the most dangerous for Lesnar, the ones who can catch him off their backs, which is exactly what Brock needs to learn to defend and work around.

He has a future in this division, because of his charisma, but if he’s going to do anything in the near future besides beat the no-names and wash-outs that the UFC brings in to fight him, he’s going to need to show a new facet of his game. Otherwise, he’s just as legitimate as he was when he showed up, not very.