DREAM.5 Preview

After delays, expectation, anticipation, letdowns, upsets, epic bouts and a lot of optimism, DREAM will conclude what it started over 5 months ago. Things have definitely gone from bad to worse for the upstart organization. If you remember, earlier this year the 1st DREAM show raked in a dismal 9 rating even dropping to 6th overall that night. Fast forward to now and I think MMA fans have definitely come to embrace DREAM. They’ve definitely broke the mold of unreachable Japanese MMA by inked a deal with HDNet to televise their shows live in the United States and Nikkan Sports is reporting that Nike has just signed on to become a clothing supplier for DREAM. Sadly, there are 2 bouts that maybe removed from this much anticipated show. Hideo Tokoro suffered a minor accident after a car collision, but will continue with his anticipated bout with DREAM. 3 standout Takeshi Yamazaki. Also, Norifumi “Kid” Yamamoto will go fightless in 2008 as an injury has kept him out of his DREAM debut against Joseph Benavidez and maybe for half a year. Things seem to be getting worse for “Kid” as he maybe in some HUGE trouble as he is rumored to be linked to allegations of illegal drug use. The good news is that The Fight Network is reporting that Alistair Overeem has confirmed that he will fight Mark Hunt this weekend. Ok, Finally the fight card thus far looks like this:

HEIWA DREAM.5 Lightweight GP 2008 Final Round
Date: July 21st, 2008
Place: Osaka Jo Hall in Osaka, Japan

Lightweight GP Final Fight:
Kawajiri/Alvarez vs. Uno/Aoki

Lightweight GP Semifinal Fights:
Tatsuya Kawajiri vs. Eddie Alvarez
Caol Uno vs. Shinya Aoki

Lightweight GP Reserve Fight:
Joachim Hansen vs. Black Mamba

Featherweight Fights:
Hideo Tokoro vs. Takeshi Yamazaki

Middleweight Fight:
Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Katsuyori Shibata

Welterweight Fight:
Motoki Miyazawa vs. Kuniyoshi Hironaka

Heavyweight Fight:
Alistair Overeem vs. Mark Hunt

(Thanks to Nightmare of Battle for the full fight card)

So I’ll work my way up the card and give my picks quickly and as carefully as I can. In the only Heavyweight bout scheduled Mark Hunt returns to MMA after a 1 and 1/2 year hiatus, this does include a stoppage loss to Semmy Schilt in K-1. Alistair Overeem on the other hand has had a renaissance similar to his magnificent run at the PRIDE 2005 Middleweight GP Title. Both men possess great stand-up but what I think will make the difference is their submission game. I think Alistair definitely possesses the edge. I think Alistair will somehow force Hunt to his back or will capitalize with the height advantage. Alistair by Guillotine in the 1st.

Undefeated GCM veteran Motoki Miyazawa will step out of the cage and into his 1st big show and take on SHOOTO and UFC Veteran Kuniyoshi Hironaka. I think the edge is definitely for Hironaka primarily for the experience that he has coming in. Miyazawa does have only 4 fights all in a cage and this could definitely be a huge factor. I think Hironaka definitely needs to step up following bad results in the UFC. His stand-up is crisp and will definitely dictate the fight but I don’t think he’ll be able to finish the up and comer. Hironaka by Unanimous Decision.

Finally, after 7 months of waiting, the very much disliked and controversial Yoshihiro Akiyama makes his DREAM debut. He takes on the very colorful Katsuyori Shibata. To me, Shibata is like a poor man’s Ikuhisa Minowa, but with that said I do think Shibata is entertaining in victory or defeat, most likely defeat. Anyways, this fight is definitely a no brainer and anyone could call this. Akiyama is better at every and all facets of the game and add this to his constant gripe to impress everyone and he’s ready to go. Akiyama by Armbar in the 1st.

Even though Hideo Tokoro was in an unfortunate accident earlier this week, he will battle on and take on the very entertaining Takeshi Yamazaki. On any other card I think this would definitely prove to be fight of the night but they have tough competition with the GP semis. Every Featherweight bout in DREAM has proved to be epic and I think this one will also be a memorable bout. Both have that balls out style and will definitely provide a great show. I think the grappling will greatly influence the flow of the fight and Tokoro is definitely better in that field. Tokoro by Triangle Choke in the 2nd.

The reserve bout this night is Kultar “Black Mamba” Gill vs. Joachim “Hellboy” Hansen. “Hellboy” did actually advance to the quarters so I think his appearance is obvious due to his name and his epic bout with Alvarez but the Gill appearance is a bit confusing. I would’ve preferred to see Ishida and Hellboy but maybe helping Kawajiri’s for his fight axed that idea. Anyways, back to this match, I think that Gill’s reach and height advantage could work to his advantage but not necessarily that much. Hellboy’s good all around game with Gill’s lackluster submission defense spells disaster for Black Mamba. Hellboy by Rear Naked Choke in the 1st.

In the 1st semi-final bout, Caol Uno takes on Shinya Aoki. This will definitely prove the more methodical of the 2 semi bouts. I think both men are more meticulous and thoughtful when attacking and defending. Luckily for Uno his submission defense is great and could prove bothersome for Aoki. Aoki on the other hand is the most gifted grappler in MMA and could possible submit any fighter from 170 pounds to 155. I think Aoki will definitely try to pull guard if necessary. I don’t see this fight going the distance and I don’t see Uno out muscling the stringy Aoki. Aoki by Armbar in the 1st.

In the 2nd semi-final bout and what most, myself included, are predicting will be fight of the night. Tatsuya “Krusher” Kawajiri faces Eddie Alvarez. Personally, I can’t really even fathom how this fight will end. I don’t really have a mental picture. I know that their wrestling will definitely be a huge part. I also feel that Kawajiri will be able to out muscle and also be able to secure more significant take downs and positioning. I think Alvarez will throw all he can into the bout. This one is definitely the hardest to call. I have a feeling that this will be like Gomi vs. Kawajiri all over again, with Kawajiri actually coming out on top. Kawajiri by Unanimous Decision.

Finally, the GP and DREAM Title Fight. My picks are Kawajiri and Aoki. I feel both men will be too filled with testosterone to feel any pain or give an inch to their opponent. Both men will probably be drained but not enough to hinder their performance. I think Kawajiri’s submission defense will serve him well. My worry is that his ability to successfully take Aoki down will only help Aoki at this point. I also think Kawajiri’s ground and pound will also benefit him along with his stock frame to prevent any loose limbs. My pick stands the same from day 1. Kawajiri will be crowned DREAM and GP champion via Unanimous Decision.

Side Note: Joseph Benavidez is still scheduled to fight and they are trying to find an opponent for him. I had to try and post this as late as possible but I wasn’t able to squeek him into my preview. Maybe they’ll match him up with Darren Uyenoyama, which would definitely be great.