UFC 82: The Breakdown – Round 2
By MMA Opinion on Feb 27, 2008
In the followup to my previous article in the same series, here is my breakdown and predictions for the main card for the upcoming UFC 82: PRIDE of a Champion event.The fights covered in this edition are:Alessio “Legionarius” Sakara v/s Chris “The Crippler” Leben
Jon Fitch v/s Chris Wilson
Yushin “Thunder” Okami v/s Evan Tanner
Let’s get it on, then.
- Alessio “Legionarius” Sakara v/s Chris “The Crippler” Leben
- Jon Fitch v/s Chris Wilson
- Yushin “Thunder” Okami v/s Evan Tanner
This is Alessio Sakara’s first fight at middleweight and judging by his last performance at Light Heavyweight, this one is going to be a barnburner! Sakara comes in with amazing boxing ability and a newly found confidence on the ground as well, thanks to his new camp – The American Top Team. Sakara, ever a dangerous knockout artist, seems to finally have worked at his achilles heel, the Takedown defence. What one wonders is whether Sakara will be able to translate his power and skill down in the middleweight division.
His acid test – The Crippler, Chris Leben. Although Leben is more known for his antics on the camera on the Ultimate fighter season 1, do not take this team quest and now hawaii based fighter lightly. Many people on the internet make the mistake of judging him by his TV appearance and have been proven wrong a few times. Ever an exciting fighter, Leben brings excellent ground skills and really good striking into this fight. What might be a bad idea for him would be to wait till he gets hit before he exhibits any fire in this match since one punch from Sakara will be all it takes to knock Leben out. Leben does have an advantage on the ground and I think that should be his strategy in this fight – take Sakara down and end the fight with punches from side mount.
An exciting standup battle is what I predict.
Prediction: Chris Leben by TKO round 2.
This is one of three match-ups that I am very excited to watch. Jon Fitch goes up against a very dangerous newcomer to the octagon in Chris Wilson.
Fitch, an exciting ground fighter, is well known in the division and is thought of by many as one of the rising stars in the division. Fitch has a phenomenal ground game and is pretty good at strikes also. I forsee Fitch trying to take the match to the mat and use his considerable wrestling skills to dominate Wilson on the ground to take the victory.
Wilson, on the otherhand, is a seasoned muay-thai veteran and has had an excellent record in stand-up matches. Wilson’s knees and strikes and especially his setups for the same are phenomenal and have ever gained the praise of many of the game’s best. His ground game is pretty good as well, training at Team Quest with the likes of Dan Henderson and Matt Lindland have really helped Wilson step up his skills on the ground and his submissions are really good as well. I personally am really excited to finally see Wilson in the UFC and can’t wait to see how he performs.
I think the match will end up on the ground for the latter half of the first round with Fitch dominating after taking a few blows while on the feet. The second round will have Fitch trying to get Wilson to the ground but Wilson will use his considerable reach to keep him at bay and the match ends by either submission or TKO on the ground for Chris Wilson. I know a lot of people are going to disagree with this one – glad to hear your thoughts.
Prediction: Chris Wilson – round 2 – Submission/ TKO
Evan Tanner returns!! This is basically what has been hyped a lot during the past few weeks and I have even read articles with Tanner claiming to know how to beat Anderson Silva. Two things here that don’t pertain to the match-up. It may be to generate interest, but I have never seen Tanner given so much media attention and secondly, never has Tanner ever made such statements before a fight either. Now that I have that off my chest…
Yushin “Thunder” Liger ..errr…I mean Okami is back after his decision loss to Rich Franklin and has been given the task of judging whether the 35 year old Tanner is still a force to reckon in the middleweight division or not. Okami is mainly a ground fighter with excellent takedowns and dominant wrestling capabilities. Deceptively strong, Okami possesses strength that will be a challenge for Tanner to fight against. The one big weakness that I see in Okami’s game that might cause him problems is that Okami is not very comfortable with strikes and someone with as dangerous a striking game as Tanner can be a daunting task for Okami. The one thing that Okami always goes to and I believe will this time as well is going to be the takedown and ground and pound strategy (if it works, don’t change it right?) and his strength and skill will definitely be difficult for Tanner to combat.
Tanner on the other hand has every eye on him and has a lot to prove. No one knows how good Tanner’s conditioning is – although I have never seen Tanner gas and he looked better than ever in promo material. Secondly, is the Evan Tanner who steps in to the octagon the same Tanner who stepped out a few years back? Third – Does Evan Tanner have the will and determination to take his game back to and beyond what it was when he lost to Rich Franklin?
This is the first time that Tanner has had a proper training and conditioning camp for a fight. Tanner’s strengths have always been his elite level striking and excellent submission game. Although his will is sometimes questioned, his heart has never been. He has excellent control during most of his defensive manouvers and can easily turn a defensive manouvre into an offensive tipping point. Look for a lot of crazy elbows from the back while maintaining guard and also look for some really crisp striking from Tanner.
Prediction: Evan Tanner by Submission/ Tapout – Round 3 (provided this is a fully prepared, ready Tanner who shows up).
P.S.: I really enjoyed the thoughtful counter-arguments and intelligent discussion that my first article generated and hope that all my future work including this one are the source of similar discussion. Thanks to all for participating in these discussions and all future ones.
Filed Under: Predictions • UFC
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well done sir. i agree with both wilson and leben, disagree with the tanner prediction but you did make light of if its the tanner we all knew and loved.
wilson’s reach is the key here for me, i want fitch to shoot, i think he will eat knees, and a clinch aswell here and there very early, after that he will have to out will and smart wilson. i think this will puch back fitch abit and open it up for an upset. at the odds aswell i’ll take a shot.
leben, your right he surprises you in every fight. many were disappointed with the martin fight and not that impressed. i was, i thought he for the 1st time exacuted a game plan and showed tremendous patience against a very non-patient opponent. he also like we all know already showed heart and that he can finish from every angle. i have always liked his ground game so i think he has the advantage overall. don’t how its a main card bout however.
okami, for me i think it comes down to tanner being a 1st round finisher. tanner has nothing to lose here and we all know about his history, a win or solid performance will due him wonders i’m sure. but i willn’t buy into the comeback story. tanner is a 1st round guy and okami is well a very slow starter. i think this is the difference. okami will stretch it to the 3rd with easy and eventually tko tanner or win UD. tanner’s conditioning has to be questioned, i think the younger,talanted stronger okami leg kicks tanner to death for round 1 then lays on top and rolls for a bit rounds 2, and a little gnp RD 3.
tanner has better stand-up, heavy hands at times, but again will he swing for the fences for a win, and is he really ready to roll for 3rounds after being off 3 months
Dean, thanks for the thoughts and agreements (this time round
)
As far as the Okami fight goes, I think that Tanner’s game has always been strong on the ground. On the feet, you are right that Okami’s game should lie in leg kicks, however, I don’t see him do this. In all probablility, he will look to impose himself on Tanner the same way he did against Anderson Silva, since both of them need the clinch game to be effective standing. I still say it will be Tanner using his elbows and cutting Okami who will probably get the win later in the fight
Tanner’s conditioning although not the best has held through three rounds most of the time.
either way i’m excited!!! great card tomorrow, and great site sir.