Huerta versus the ‘net; Guida versus the Casual Fan

Everyone loves Roger Huerta. He makes women swoon wherever he goes. Men only wish they could fight with his tenacity and personality. He’s a youthful 24 and already a Sports Illustrated cover boy. He’s unbeaten in the UFC – nearly in his career – and the company sees him as there meal ticket in markets like Mexico and Latin America. Forget cities, we’re talking countries and regions! Yep, everyone loves Roger Huerta. Except the five percent nation; the MMA hardcores.

Huerta is one of the most resented figures of any fighter I have seen when you turn on a computer. He goes from beloved to downright hated when you click between a mainstream site to a hardcore MMA page. He’s dismissed as “protected” and “overrated”. He’s going to get “smashed” by the first “real” fighter he faces. To that end I can only ask that everybody take a step back, get yourself refocused, and get some perspective.

Huerta isn’t the greatest fighter to come down the 155 pounder pike. He might not be in the top five most talented in the entire division. But he IS talented. He could be that good. And he’s just getting started. Of course Huerta is protected. If you had a guy ESPN and SI fell all over, you’d make sure he was ready for a challenge too. When media surrounds the fighters at high profile UFC shows like in Houston last April, they talk to George St. Pierre and Matt Serra, Diego Sanchez, and Josh Koshcheck. But the media devours the likable and handsome Huerta. The kids got the weight of the world on his shoulders and he’s smiling. I think he deserves some credit.

Now, as for that challenge he’s been needing, he’s going to get it. Hardcores rejoice, because the cupcake days are over for Huerta. Clay Guida, the former carpenter who looks more like the caricature of Jesus then St. Joesph the carpenter will surely give that pretty boy “the beating he deserves”. Guida, who brings to mind the word “journeyman” even though he’s vastly more talented, faces Huerta this Saturday.

I’ll spare you the deep analysis. Josh Gross or Luke Thomas can pick up that check. Huerta has all the talent in the world. He can go for ten rounds, he’s creative, and he’s got strong stand up and ground. He’s also going to lose. He can’t knock Guida out, and I don’t think he’s stronger then Guida. I think he might be better standing, but I don’t think he’ll be on the ground. I have two predictions. The first is a Guida win in the third round. The second is that this loss will do more for Huerta then Guida.

Any other year I’d say Guida finally getting a win on TV might break him out of the cluttered Lightweight division pack. But this TUF crop is so weak, and the buzz is so dead among the casual fan, that I don’t seeing this show getting the strong young viewership on a Saturday night needed to make a case for Guida as a break out star. Bars near me play PPVs and people stop and watch. Spike shows don’t even make it on the TV while people drink and play pool.

I’m a huge Huerta booster, but a loss will do him good. Setback will only feed his drive. He’ll have to reassess where he is and where he wants to be. He’ll be challenged from here on out, and I think this is a great learning experience. If he owns a computer, he can safely go online for the first time all year Sunday morning. He’ll fight with heart and skill, and the hardcores will show newfound respect for him.

For Guida, who is terribly likable if he can find the interview time, the challenge isn’t the ‘net, it’s the casual fan. Unfortunately for the carpenter, I don’t think enough of them will see or hear Guida for his image to break out of the pack.