I won’t say that UFC 84 changed the entire sport, because that would be an outright lie, but the 205 pound division needs to be seriously rethought, and the UFC management has been neglecting restructuring it for a while. It’s clear that there are fighters that are ranked way to high in that division and other fighters who need to be reevaluated and reappraised.
The return of Wanderlei Silva to form may have been the most important thing that happened last night and, unfortunately, everyone simply sees it as a last hurrah for Silva, because after his loss to Liddell he seems almost unmarketable for title contention, and I think that’s the right judgement, but at the same time, there are guys that Wanderlei should be fighting, guys that he should step in with because they need to be tested as much as he needs to gain some more practice and credibility in the cage.
Questioning Wanderlei’s credibility as a fighter is like questioning Mirko CroCop’s ability to hit hard. It’s an unquestionable truth in the world of MMA, but the question is whether or not his return to the top tier is legitimate, or if it is just, as some seem to think, a last hurrah. It makes alot of sense to put him in and test him against top tier opponents like, say, Houston Alexander or Rameau Thierry Soukoudjou.
For those who think I just picked Sokoudjou’s name out of a hat full of the mixed tier of top light heavyweights with questionable credentials in the UFC, I didn’t. Sokoudjou’s performance last night shows that he has some of the most devastating striking at 205 pounds and, while he wasn’t fighting a top tier striker like Machida, we have to remember that when they fought, Sokoudjou dominated most of the standup aspect of that fight. While Sokoudjou’s grappling may be called into question after losing to Machida (and, remember, he’s the only fighter Lyoto has finished in the UFC), we have to acknowledge that his leg kicks are probably the most potent standup weapon in the division and that, unlike Machida, he’s much better at setting up finishes. I’m not stupid enough to believe that Sokoudjou will be, in anyone’s mind, higher on the ladder than Machida, but his standup is clearly better and the fact that Machida still hasn’t finished anybody makes it hard for me to believe that he deserves to be a title contender.
Don’t get me wrong, I think Machida has incredible potential and that his use of karate as a legitimate MMA striking system is very interesting. Still, we have to remember that this man has not finish an opponent with that striking. He hurt Tito really badly a few times, but his inability to use punches effectively makes it hard to believe that, even with his illusive head movement and obvious quickness, he’ll be able to go five rounds against Rampage (or Forrest, for that matter, given Griffin’s incredible ability to move forward even when being hit) if he insists on fighting off of the back foot the way that he did against Ortiz last night, and the way he has done his entire career.
That said, people are going to ask that I call a legitimate title contender, someone who can realistically make a fight with Rampage (who, I think most critics will agree, will probably defend his title successfully against Griffin) exciting and interesting. For that I want to call on Thiago Silva, and I think that decision is as obvious to everyone else as it is to me, because, stylistically, Machida matches up horribly while at least an argument can be made for Thiago and, given the right gameplan and sufficient executing, he’s capable of winning.
The fact is, Machida can’t just back up against Rampage the way that he did with Tito. Yes, I’m aware that Machida is incredible at moving and dodging and landing those kicks, but he hasn’t sufficiently proven himself against a striker who’s willing to attack him, or at least, when he did, (and now I’m talking about the Sokoudjou fight) his out was on the ground, and there’s not a great chance, in my mind, that Machida will
end up on top of Rampage. If he does, then I can see Machida winning, but I doubt it. I doubt Machida can finish where Henderson couldn’t because I don’t honestly believe that his submission game is at the level that it would have to be.
Silva, on the other hand, has proven his ability to do damage in open range, in the clinch and on the ground. While his takedowns are not infallible, his clinch game is good enough that, if he caught Rampage up against the cage, he could lead Rampage into one of the well known, well mapped holes in his game: the thai plum. It’s something that Thiago has the skills to exploit, and why shouldn’t he, why couldn’t he?
Both fighters would go in at a considerable size disadvantage, but even there you have a serious problem for Machida, because Silva is the physically larger of the two and Machida would have more trouble using his strength in the clinch against a fighter like Rampage. Against Machida, ‘page might choose to go in at close distance and work from a Greco clinch with some slams and groundnpound. He won’t do that against Silva. It’s not in his best interest and he knows that.
There is no area of the game that Machida can control against Rampage. He is on the defensive standing up. He is on the defensive in the clinch. He is on the defensive off of his back, if the fight goes there. Honestly, it’s a terrible position for him to be in, and Silva is in a position to handle Rampage’s game much better than a kick-based fighter who doesn’t throw hands and spends most of the fight moving backwards
UFC 84 proved that Machida cannot finish consistently, that Thiago can recover from a hit, that Sokoudjou and Wanderlei are making some strides in learning the dynamics of the cage, but most importantly it proved that there is no clear successor to the questionable Forrest Griffin as title contender. Griffin’s title shot is controversial enough, since he’s not long removed from his loss to Jardine, but even so, it looks like the next title contender is going to be just as controversial and probable just as strangely selected, probably picked not the basis of their skills and their chance at victory, but because of the attention that they have garnered.
Honestly, I hope I’m wrong about that last one.
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May 26th, 2008 at 9:38am
“top tier” opponents like Houston Alexander? I like Alexander but he’s far from top tier. His next fight in the UFC is truly do or die.
Wanderlei vs Jackson III, makes sense for a couple of reasons.
- Silva is coming off a great impressive TKO win.
- He destroyed the current champ in their previous bouts . . .
- we know the UFC can market a rematch.
- Jackson would the rematch. He also wants Shogun.
I really don’t think Wanderlei needs any more practice in the cage. His record is his practice. He fought in the cage before CHASING Tito Ortiz. While Liddell is 0-2 versus the champ, the last fight leaving little to the imagination, Wanderlei’s 2-0 against the current champion will simply make a far exciting fight. Forget the tune-ups.
Was Tito able to close the distance against Machida? Tito is considered a strong wrestler. I wouldn’t assume anyone at this point would be able to easily close the distance against Lyoto Machida based off his speed, lateral movements, and his countering strikes. He also proved that he is strong in the clinch. Tito was not able to control Machida. Ortiz’s arm was pinned under Machida’s knee as he was getting hit in the face. He was possibly saved by the bell. I really think when it comes to Machida, you never know. How he matches up against Tito does not really indicate how he’ll match up against Forrest or Rampage.
Thiago fighting anyone in the LHW would be great including the champion.
Lest we forget, the current champion only fought a journeyman (Marvin Eastman) in the UFC on his way to a title shot.
May 26th, 2008 at 11:37am
I’m not calling Alexander top tier based on his destruction of Jardine. I’m calling him top tier because he knocked out two very good strikers (Sakara’s boxing never gets any credit, and Alexander decimated him).
Wanderlei vs. Jackson III makes perfect sense?
Wanderlei is coming off of a seriously hard portion of his career, he’s got one win in his last four fights. He’s hardly at his peak in his career. It’s premature to give him a title fight after one win.
How does that make more sense than giving Rampage someone like Thiago? At least Thiago has won a bunch of fights in a row (his whole career, actually), and Thiago is coming off of a finish. Frankly, that fight makes alot more sense to me, and I’d like to see Wanderlei show that he’s really back.
I don’t really care what Rampage wants. I care who’s qualified to fight him, who has earned their title shots. I hardly think that, with one win between the two of them, Wanderlei and Shogun are worthy title contenders. They’re great fighters, and I remember their accomplishments from Pride well, but I don’t think that their qualifications in another organization should put them in position for a title shot, especially when they’ve performed so poorly over all in the cage.
Tito closed the distance multiple times. He just couldn’t do anything with Lyoto once he did, and that’s fine. It’s a tribute to Machida’s newfound wrestling ability and to Tito’s long since passage as a recognizable groundnpounder.
You’re right that how he matches up against Tito isn’t indicative of how he matches up with Forrest or ‘page. That’s not my point.
My point is that his style matches up badly. The style we’ve seen against Heath, Sokoudjou (who, in my opinion, beat Machida standing up), Nakamura, Heath and Hoger doesn’t match up well with Rampage or Forrest either. The five guys Machida has beaten standing up aren’t standup fighters. The one he beat on the ground (the only one he finished), hurt him really bad standing up.
Honestly, I think that if Machida fights Rampage, he’s going to get hurt like he did against Sokoudjou, but I don’t think that he’s going to be able to get that fight to the ground. We’ll see, but that’s how I see the fight unfolding.
You’re right that Rampage only fight Marvin Eastman (a great fighter, but, as you said, a journeyman) on his way to a title shot. And even Rampage said he though that it was premature to give him that title shot with only one fight in the cage. Honestly, the whole thing about giving fighters shots based on their past credibility is a phenomenon I’m not particularly fond of, because even though it has given us Rampage and (lest we forget) Anderson Silva and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, it is totally different to give a title shot to a guy who has had one of the worst streaks in his entire career and is coming off of one win.
It’s not fair to Wanderlei to not let him regain his confidence and composure before putting him in the cage and it’s not fair to the rest of the title contenders to give him a title shot when there are plenty of guys out there who are at the peak of their careers and we’re not sure that Wanderlei is at a high-point in his at all.
May 27th, 2008 at 8:43am
As far as Wanderlei’s last three losses are concerned. He lost to a much bigger Cro-Cop. He claims to have been ill against Dan Henderson but he legitimately got KOed . . . so no excuse. And he lost to Liddell by decision. He’s was dominated but he was still standing at the end. No shame in those losses.
Since when did the UFC necessarily care about who’s “qualified” to fight who? That’s why Wanderlei versus Rampage might happen. Was Rampage qualified to face the then champion in Liddell? Or Anderson Silva against Franklin?
Dana more or less said, f*ck that . . . you’re fighting Chuck because you already beat him in Pride. Rampage wanted to build a name in the UFC first. The UFC is not thinking about fair when it comes to match ups. All the UFC needs to do is show the old footage of their current LHW being demolished by Wanderlei who just incredibly finished Jardine (who just beat Liddell, who just beat him) and build the title fight. Added plus, those guys really do not like each other. Let’s be clear about one thing, the fight business has never been about fair match-ups with guys who earned their stripes. Some champions are protected and fighters are coddled.
I believe just about any of the top guy in the LHW division can win the belt and lose the belt. All of the following fighters should be mixing it up: Rampage, Liddell, Wanderlei, Forrest(?), Evans(?) Shogun, Henderson, Thiago and yes Machida(?).
We already know how to effectively beat Jardine, Houston Alexander taught Wanderlei how its done. I mean that figuratively. Close the distance and put ‘em away.
Forrest(?) is top but let’s see what he does against Jackson.
Machida(?) let’s see what he does against a bigger name.
Evans(?) Let’s see what he does against a Wanderlei or Thiago Silva.
Last note about Machida . . . at this point, I’m really curious to see how his next opponent chooses to approach him. There’s more than enough video footage and everybody knows his overall style.
June 28th, 2008 at 5:34am
machida the obvious next contender he’s 13-0 5-0 in the ufc
you have already gone over why the rest dont deserve one
and when did machida get hurt against soko? (or against anyone?)
and when was he winning the striking (or anyone) was it in the first when soko took the fight down? or was it in the second when soko got dropped and choked out?
and calling soko’s grappling into question? this guys a judo player
and he shouldve knocked out kaz alot sooner
June 28th, 2008 at 8:52am
John: Machida has done a good job of escaping injury, but I think we all already know why. Also, Judo is not BJJ.