There was a very positive response to my pieces on Anderson Silva and Dan Henderson, so I figured that leading up to the fight between Serra and St. Pierre I would run a piece covering the greatest welterweight in the world and the greatest underdog the sport has ever seen. I figured that, sense Serra needs a bit more of an explanation, I’d start with him.
Matt Serra is not the most dominant fighter in the world, he is not the most dangerous fighter in the world, and he is not the most feared fighter in the world. If anything, he is the cinderella of MMA, and so many fans seem to be watching the clock like school kids at the brink of summer, waiting for it to strike midnight.
Serra is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu blackbelt, and he makes no secret about it. He is backed by one of the best kickboxing coaches in the sport, Rey Luongo, and he has no problem talking about it. He comes out of Renzo Gracie’s lineage, which he brags about constantly. Some people think he’s hysterically candid, some people think he’s a loudmouthed street punk with no respect for some of the most established fighter in the sport.
Whatever you think of Serra, whether you are for him or against him, chances are you weren’t expecting to see him knock out Georges St. Pierre. Then again, I doubt his own mother expected to see that.
I’ll get into the matchup between these two guys later, but I would like to explain why Serra won that fight and why, just in general, he wins.
Serra was regarded as one of the most explosive groundnpound fighters in the 155 pound division, when the division was still in its early stages. He was regarded one of the great Jiu-Jitsu guys to come out of that division, but his career fell a few steps back when, after beating Shonie Carter into the mat for 14 consecutive minutes, he was caught with a spinning backfist and laid out. That, for the most part, is what people talked about when they talked about Matt Serra.
That fight alone is probably the reason why he’s a huge underdog. He went the distance with Karo Parisyan and BJ Penn, he dropped a close decision to Din Thomas, but it’s that highlight reel knockout, mostly seen outside of the context of a fight that Serra would have won if he had lasted another 10 seconds, makes him an underdog.
Let’s not forget that Serra has an explosive submission game. He beat Takanori Gomi at Abu Dhabi, and I remember seeing Serra, on the very first UFC card I watched, catch a triangle choke on Kelly Dullanty. Still, it had been a long time since Serra really dominated someone. Before the fight with St. Pierre, he had fought 4 times in 3 years (all on UFC cards), and all of those fights went to decision. His last finish was the Dullanty choke out, and his only three finishes before that were the first three fights of his career, the closest one being more than 7 years ago now.
The question I’m bringing up is not one of whether Serra should have had a title shot. I think the answer to that is clearly “no.” Without TUF 4, Serra wouldn’t even have been talked about as a member of the pack at 170 pounds. Still, it makes me wonder, “does Serra have St. Pierre’s number?”
It’s strange, because there are a handful of matchup anamolies in the sport that happen, even when we aren’t sure that they should. While it’s possible that Matt Serra has become genuinely skilled enough to beat the #1 ranked welterweight in the world, it’s also possible that this is the one matchup that he has worked out, and it seems strange that they wouldn’t have Serra take one fight in between these two to work that out. Then again, they had planned on it.
I believe that Serra is a great fighter, but I am simply being genuine. Many people say “Respect the Hardware” and I won’t go so far as to call the matchup with St. Pierre a fluke. I respect him enough to believe that his skill played a large roll in that fight. Still, it’s hard to look at this matchup from a statistical point of view, and wonder if this fight could be anything else than the freak of nature that it appears.
I guess we’re bound to find out.
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April 6th, 2008 at 6:13 pm
Excellent article, as always, Josh. I think you may be right on Serra being a great match-up for GSP, that would explain why he took GSP out in the first but couldn’t finish or dominate other fighters.
April 6th, 2008 at 8:20 pm
I also think, after looking over my piece, that I forgot something about the significance of Serra’s position as just a product of a matchup that he has working for him.
It turns out, Matt Serra is the first fighter to have his first title defense against the man he took the title from. That means he could become a 2 time champion by only beating one fighter. Again, I’m not saying that I think Serra’s taking this one, but if this is really a product of a matchup that he’s got nailed, then I think he’s getting off too easy by not having to fight someone different.
April 7th, 2008 at 12:34 am
By far, the most soundly constructed analysis and summary of the fight between St-Pierre and Serra that I have ever read…finally, someone who tells it like it is, I could not agree with you more on Serra and his background…
Time will tell if he has GSP’s number, although I simply cannot see UFC 83 being anything similar to the first fight…I think part of that “number talk” is due to Serra’s element of surprise; which is no longer there..
Truthfully? I see GSP beating Serra at HIS OWN GAME, much like he did to Kos, and arguably this time to Hughes…
Numerous take-downs, ground and pound, submission resulting from continued pressure from the strikes in the second round, if Serra lasts that long…done & done
Long live the King (can u tell I’m a fan?)
April 7th, 2008 at 11:43 am
Thanks Pete. I’m still not sure how I think Rush is going to plan for this fight, whether he’s going to stand and trade or outwrestle and overpower Serra on the ground. Either seems like it would work for me, and I’m psyched by the prospect of the fight.
There’s definitely something to be said for the psychological side of this fight, and that’s what throws me off. Drago’s been doing some talking recently, and that kind of stuff throws me off, because I remember that Serra did dominate the first night.
The St. Pierre analysis is coming soon.
April 8th, 2008 at 5:03 pm
nice write-up, i just wanted to ask your thoughts on serra’s back? i think this is the x-factor, cannot see serra being strong and sharp coming off this and not fighting in between