If they like watching people get punched in the face.
Raghu Nath recently gave a pretty good look at the hype package and inserted some of his picks. I’m not going to really look at the hype behind the fights, because the UFC will do plenty of that themselves. Instead, here’s what I think’s going down, from the bottom of the card to the top.
John Halverson vs. Jorge Gurgel
This is, in my mind, a classic Jiu-Jitsu vs. Striker matchup, but since Gurgel has shown an incredible inability to finish throughout his career, I’m going to do something I don’t usually do, and pick the BJJ blackbelt to lose. While part of this is just to mix this up, I really think that if Halverson comes out swinging, as he’s expected to, he could land a short that puts Gurgel out. Otherwise, he’ll probably drop a decision.
My Pick: Halverson via TKO, Round 1
David Bielkheden vs. Diego Sanchez
There’s very little knowledge about Bielkheden, but what little I do know has endeared him to me alot. That, and the fact that Sanchez has dropped two straight without really showing serious signs of recovery from the initial loss to Josh Koscheck via decision. While both of his losses were to pin-down fighters with great wrestling backgrounds, I think that Bielkheden is going to make this a fight off of his back. The Swede’s BJJ blackbelt and training with Brazilian Top Team make this fight interesting if it hits the floor. Still, I think that Sanchez’s standup will take this fight as it wears on.
My Pick: Sanchez by KO, Round 3
Dustin Hazelett vs. Josh Koscheck
As someone who’s trained with Kos, and knows what the AKA camp is capable of under the instruction of the Camarillo’s and their many talented 170 pound fighters, I think that Kos is not getting the credit he deserves. I won’t take anything away from Hazelett, as his submission game is very good, but Koscheck is a national champion wrestler, and that NCAA background plays a huge roll in his physical power and his ability to control opponents on the ground. Bar a Drew Fickett-esque come from behind victory, I don’t see Hazelett winning this match, and I see Kos controlling it on the ground
My Pick: Koscheck by Unanimous Decision (Bring Pillows)
Luigi Fiorovanti vs. Luke Cummo
I refuse to underestimate the power of Fiorovanti’s camp, as the ATT guys are complete warriors, and the coaching staff contains one of the best grapplers in the world, Jeff Monson. I don’t know how Cummo expects to deal with that, and though he’s got a great camp with the Serra Jiu-Jitsu guys and kickboxing genius Ray Luongo, I don’t see Cummo being able to pull this one out, as he has alot of trouble fighting off of the bottom.
My Pick: Fiorovanti by TKO, Round 2
Jake O’Brien vs. Andrei Arlovski
Andrei Arlovski is fighting a wrestler who barely beat a badly injured, Octagon shocked Heath Herring. Not to mention that Andrei has something to prove, since his unimpressive performance against Fabricio Werdum. If this fight stays on the feet, expect Andrei to do alot of punching and O’Brien to do alot of falling down. If it goes to the ground, do not forget that Andrei Arlovski has a submission game, he’s a serious Sambo fighter. Still, don’t hold your breath for Andrei to pull out a submission, I’m sure he’d much rather punch O’Brien in the mouth.
My Pick: Andrei Arlovski by KO, Round 1 (The Big Dog is back)
Chris Wilson vs. Jon Fitch
I won’t write off Chris Wilson. He might be a great fighter and certainly has a solid submission game, but the fact is, he wasn’t called into this fight because people expected him to win. Fitch is supposed to beat Wilson down and advance his rank in the 170 pound division, by posting his 8th straight win and finishing an opponent, ideally in impressive fashion. That is what I expect him to do, because, while Wilson can catch a submission off the bottom, I don’t expect he will on a wrestler like Fitch, who’s been proven to have serious heart when it comes to fighting through submissions.
My Pick: Jon Fitch by Submission (Rear Naked Choke), Round 2 (Round 1 will be exciting, as like the fight with Roan Carniero, but the ending will be similar, too)
Yushin Okami vs. Evan Tanner
Both of these men are underrated submission fighters. Tanner has one of the most wicked triangles in the sport and Okami almost finished Rich Franklin with a kimura when they fought. That said, it really comes down to a battle of size against experience. Okami is a huge dude, and Tanner has alot of experience in this sport, and against alot of incredible fighters, include his middleweight title win over David Terrell. Personally, I’ll be cheering for Tanner, and I think this will be a close, back and forth match.
My Pick: Tanner by Submission (Some sort of Triangle), Round 3 (expect Okami to get on top and do some damage in rounds 1 and 2)
Alessio Sakara vs. Chris Leben
Leben is a warrior, but I think that, to put it simply, he will fail against a much more experienced, much more skilled boxer. While Sakara has been proven to be a painfully one dimensional fighter in the past, I think the fact that he is coming down to 185 and will be very large compared to Leben will give him a serious edge in this fight and allow it to keep it on the feet and manipulate the pace of the fight, using his boxing whenever and however he likes to dispatch Leben. It make take a few rounds for the technical control to really sink in, but it will happen, and when it does there will be a big KO.
My Pick: Sakara by KO, Round 2
Cheick Kongo vs. Heath Herring
If Dan Henderson and Anderson Silva weren’t on this card, this would be a shoe-in for fight of the night. Herring may try to take this fight to the ground, but, personally, I’d love to see this fight stay on the feet and, given Herring’s not much of a wrestler, it probably will. He may test Kongo’s takedown defense a little, but I think that the Frenchman’s ability to control distance and manipulate the pace of this fight will give him the huge edge in the overall game, and his general kickboxing prowess will put it in the bag.
My Pick: Kongo by KO, Round 2
Anderson Silva vs. Dan Henderson
I’ve given a much longer analysis of this fight, but I’ll abbreviate it by saying that I expect this fight to stay at range, as Anderson will lay back and try and avoid the clinch, not because he thinks Henderson is better at doing damage there, but because Henderson is certainly better at taking the fight to the ground from there. If Silva can stay at range and land powerful strikes and alot of combinations, we’ll see a solid test of Henderson’s chin, and while I don’t think that Silva will knock Hendo out, I think he’ll make a great argument for the judges to give the fight to him after five rounds.
My Pick: Silva by Unanimous Decision
Awards
Knock Out of the Night: Andrei Arlovski
Submission of the Night: Evan Tanner
Fight of the Night: Anderson Silva over Dan Henderson
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I do still love MMA and have...
