I have been successfully wagering on MMA events since I was a full-time executive in the biggest offshore gaming company in the industry, encouraging other books to put up lines on MMA events. In those early days, the books took some bad beats for a couple of reasons:
1. There was not enough bettors to easily balance the line, and;
2. Virtually all of the bettors were sharps - fanatic MMA enthusiasts who knew the fighters and knew the game.
Remember, no matter what ANYONE tells you, sportsbooks want to attract an equal amount to each side of a line. Responsible professional sportsbooks do not take a position on an event, they set and adjust the line in an attempt to attract equal action to the favorite and the underdog. Achieving this guarantees them the theoretical hold percentage or profit regardless of the outcome. While perfectly balanced action is never achieved, the line is managed according to this principle.
With this in mind, let’s examine my favorite opportunities on this weekend’s UFC 79 card. I would love to comment on Liddell / Silva but I have clients who paid for that pick and I don’t want to wake up dead, so I’ll settle for a couple of my other favorite picks:
Matt Hughes +210 Georges St. Pierre -250
This line has moved sufficiently for most of the value to have been bet out of the line, so if you did not get down earlier for a better number, I urge caution. GSP is a strong favorite and deserves to be, as he is by far the better rounded fighter and is hungrier, a factor that is disproportionately critical in combat sports. Hughes also displayed some mental weakness by acknowledging at the TUF finale that GSP’s taking the fight late was an important factor in him agreeing to the fight. This is an obvious sign of weakness that bettors look for.
Unless there is a late surge in public money coming down on Hughes, I suggest a single unit wager on GSP. If the line is bet back down to earth and you can get down on GSP for under -200, 2 units. Prediction: St. Pierre by TKO.
Lyoto Machida -115 Rameau Sokoudjou -105
This is one situation where the mainstream popularity of MMA creates a juicy betting opportunity for the astute punter. Sokoudjou’s flashy style and upset victories over highly-touted Pride middleweights Minotauro and Arona have placed his tounge-twister name on the radar of even the most newly-minted MMA fan. Since the line is the books’ opinion of what the public thinks will transpire in the ring, this is a good thing for sharp bettors.
Machida’s careful, counterstriking style, unflappaple demeanor and superior ring presence give him a big edge, especially under UFC rules where the frequency of decision victories is rising sharply. I always conduct research and write my own line before reading the posted line. When I handicapped this matchup, my line was Machida -175, so getting him at close to even money is good value. Bet 5 units on Machida. Prediction - Machida by unanimous decision.
David “Dmoney” Meyers
dmeyers@gmail.com (fixed)
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December 29th, 2007 at 12:57 pm
not bad… so just who are these ‘clients’ that received the inside information on the silva/liddell match?
December 30th, 2007 at 1:44 am
FYI my email address above is incorrect- it should read dmeyers at gmail dot com.