The fight, not the media circus.
I remember a few years ago, the notion of a Randy Couture vs. Fedor Emelianenko fight was simply scoffed at by most of the hard core fans. Back in 2003 the perception was that Randy had dropped to light heavyweight and had done so to escape the problems he’d experienced in the heavyweight division. Even though he was beating the likes of Chuck Liddell, Tito Ortiz and Vitor Belfort at the time, there wasn’t any point in talking about Randy and Fedor. It seemed like a waste of time. Not many would’ve picked Randy back then.
Fast forward to February of 2006, and most everyone can recall Randy holding his gloves up in the air and announcing his retirement, after suffering the only two straight knock-out losses of his entire career, virtually back to back.
During the time when Randy was a light heavyweight, Fedor’s competition was still pretty up to snuff in the heavyweight division. Sure, there was that one freak match against Little Zulu. However his fights were few and far between. In fact each year since 2005 have seen Fedor compete less. He only fought twice in 2006, tapping Mark Coleman as well as a very competitive fight with Mark Hunt. 2007 has only seen him fight once, and that’s likely all we’ll see of him this year.
Therein lies the first issue. What’s recent is what seems to be relevant. People have vaulted Randy up to the very tip top of the heavyweight division based on his last two fights, one where he beat a suspiciously more awkward than usual Sylvia, and a relatively untested Gonzaga. It seems that the element of surprise involved with the outcomes of these fights made people stop examining how a fight plays out, and focus more on the final outcome. While that is fine when considering the never popular rankings, when examining the likely avenue the fight will head down there are more important things to examine. Namely how each fighter gets their job done.
It seems pretty obvious when one looks at how each respective fighter does their job, that Fedor’s inactivity and Randy’s recent surprises have skewed what was previously believed. However, for those who are more into the technical aspects of the fight game, this fight simply isn’t that attractive. Recent events haven’t changed Fedor’s style, and they haven’t changed Randy’s either.
If I were to try and break down Fedor’s game, this is what I see:
I see sambo strikes, which tend to be more looping in nature. Fedor throws his strikes from strange angles, and there is a reason for this. The method to Fedor’s madness is a time tested fundamental aspect of Combat Sambo. He throws those looping strikes because he doesn’t need to plant his feet to throw them effectively. They allow him to throw very fast punches while almost simultaneously closing the distance and gaining a clinch. From the clinch, Fedor is a world class Judoka who is also obviously very well versed in various wrestling techniques. His takedowns are often explosive, He has demonstrated excellent takedown defense, having outwrestled every wrestler he’s ever faced.
When he does wind up on his back he’s proven to be just as dangerous with a repertoire of submissions and more specifically, arm bars. Matt Lindland said he’d “never seen an armbar from that position†after Fedor caught him. In the scramble Fedor has demonstrated the ability to continue throwing those looping strikes while never putting himself in much danger of losing his position. His biggest weakness is that he seems to cut very easily, with his only loss being the result of a gash. His cardio has never proven to fail, and he has proven his durability a number of times. (Probably most spectacularly when he survived Randleman’s suplex.)
If I were to break down Randy’s game:
I see boxing being his primary base standing up, but he’s also employed the looping strikes ala sambo to close the gap, and from the clinch he’s prone to dirty boxing and working for a takedown. His takedowns are often wrestling throws, and he executes them extremely well.
His cardio has proven to be a big strength for him ever since his weight drop in 2003. His takedown defense has proven to be good, however he’s also rarely allowed his opposition to get into position to even attempt one. How he fights off his back is a mystery these days, but it is safe to assume he’s improved since his first foray into the heavyweight ranks.
He has shown a great ability to dictate the pace of a fight, with his recent performances being more methodical. Randy’s biggest pair of weapons has consistently proven to be his ability to prepare for specific opponents and then not waver from his game plan.
On paper they seem to be pretty close. However a closer examination of the two should make it clear to even a casual observer that Fedor has proven to be more dynamic than Randy has throughout his career. That becomes a big problem to deal with when your biggest weapon is your ability to game plan.
There seems to be only one solid game plan for Randy to shoot for, and that would be to take Fedor down, and then cut him with an elbow with close quarter ground and pound. This avenue plays to Randy’s favor only in a cage. The cage would most certainly play a role in this strategy as it could be used to slow Fedor’s takedown defense as well as his movement on the ground.
Fedor’s likely response to this scenario would be the standard “a good defense is a good offense†line. Each of them would be likely to come out quickly, with Fedor having the odds in his favor based on previous performances to land something quickly and push the tempo of the fight. I haven’t found many who would say Fedor’s game isn’t well rounded enough to push the tempo from any position Randy might put him in. Fedor is constantly working, no matter if he’s on one knee, flat on his back or standing up.
And that is something that cannot be said about either of Randy’s recent opponents. Fedor will be able to push the pace and keep the tempo moving. The 31 year old Fedor would test Randy’s 44 year old cardio more than anyone Randy has defeated in his entire career. In a five round fight Randy would be very hard pressed, with his best chances for winning requiring he get things accomplished sooner than later. History has also shown us that when one has to try and bank on cutting their opponent to win, they tend to fail with that goal and give a lackluster performance to boot.
All logical signs continue to point to Fedor winning the fight (most likely in a more convincing fashion within a ring than a cage.) Nothing has changed as far as how they fight, and it doesn’t look like either of them are willing to concede home field advantage. Thus, the only fight Randy seems to have in front of him is a legal one.
(And maybe, just maybe a year or two from now when Randy’s name has stopped appearing at the top of the headlines, people will begin to realize that they never wanted to see Randy take a beating like the one Fedor would likely end his career with, ala Mark Coleman.)
Loading ...