In a string of bad luck decisions/good luck decision consequences, the much maligned stretch of two B-level UFC pay-per-view broadcasts kicks off tomorrow night in Cincinnati. Perhaps, being more realistic, it’s bad luck, even more horrible luck (some might say karma), followed by decent luck in consequences. But Fedor signing with M-1, followed by Couture leaving the UFC abruptly, has left the Brandon Vera vs Tim Sylvia heavyweight bout meaning much more.
Add to that a main event with a hot crowd for hometown hero Rich Franklin in his quest to dethrone the heavily favored champion Anderson Silva, and we have the storyline aspects for a compelling night of fights. Many have questioned the fights themselves, but I would submit that those people, though they consider themselves “real†fans, are falling into a casual fan’s trap of looking for star power to guide them. I’m not sleeping on this card, and I think it’ll be the kind of surprising strong show the last UFC trip to Ohio provided. You know the one where an old man grabbed the heavyweight crown to cap a solid show, all said and done.
We in the MMA blog world, and those who put their blogs into a more authentic-looking traditional sports journalism form, tend to micromanage every Mixed Martial Arts related decision. Certainly this is true of the largest MMA company in the world, the Ultimate Fighting Championships, and its public face, Dana White. Dana hates the online bloggers and media (you make your own distinctions of who is what, as I do), and they in turn make a story out of anything he says or does. It’s a cute, if not tiring, war that yield some great stories and a lot of babble talk. Perhaps this is never more true than this instance because with a perceived weak card, the focus will be much more on what Dana does and says during the entire weekend, than what goes on inside the ring from 10pm until 1am, Eastern.
Fedor not signing and Couture leaving are the most major stories since the PRIDE acquisition (and this is the first event since the inevitable closing, so add that to the list), so MMA writers like myself had no shortage of op-ed subjects, or in many cases, news-editorial pieces. I think when the dust settles the same base (believed to be between 350,000 buys to 400,000 buys) will put down their cash, regardless of opinion of the card, and be entertained. I think the fights will be good to great in some cases. I believe Dana White will say some things that get a lot of people up early on a Sunday for negative opinion-editorial writings, in many cases deservedly so. I think this will be a crowd that makes a bad show watchable, and a good show great. And my final lock for my picks, I think this show and next months will be profitable for the UFC, making a lot of uninformed opinions irrelevant in a sports world that is really a business like football, baseball, and an entertainment world that makes Disney billions yearly in business. Wouldn’t it be fitting if my preview ended there? It doesn’t:
Anderson Silva vs Rich Franklin
I wanna say straight off that Silva gets no respect, or at least, not the respect he deserves for how he’s been fighting the last year-plus. I know it’s a weak division; people have nothing to talk about, so I hear the same things over and over. And this is one of the staples. Dan Henderson would kill everyone in this division. Anderson Silva is decent, but it’s a WEAK division. What a mess. This is a tragedy. It’s a huge story..blah blah, I’m on hold to be on the Beatdown with TJ blah blah and all that!
Yes, the division could be bolstered. I’m sure in the next year we’ll see some new faces. These things take time. I’ve not heard of a potential signing out there that will be the Fedor of 185. Dan Henderson won’t be around much longer, my dear purists. It’s nothing against Dan from me, and I know people will be up in arms, but he’s not worth what PRIDE paid him in this market with that vanilla personality. And he’s especially not worth that at light heavy. He might be worth something at middleweight, but he’s fighting the move. I think he’ll be in Elite XC this time next year. And before I move on, fighter pay is a whole separate issue, but the comment above was based on the REALITIES of the pay scale right now as UFC choices to pay. I think he’ll get the money from Elite, but nowhere else.
Other thing is everyone talking about Rich Franklin working on his clinch. Or at least, his SAYING he’s spent so much time on the clinch. I’m sure he’s training for the clinch. I’m sure he’s somewhat improved. I’m also sure he’s not going to stand there in Silva’s clinch. This is why I look forward to the MMA media (and most of it is progressive enough to be online that’s not a knock) maturing. Stop being buddies with the fighters if you wanna be a reporter. Be friendly, but separate that from your reporting. It is not progressive to be pals with Quinton Jackson and giggle at his jokes while he hangs at your house during an interview leading to a fight. It’s also not professional to say Franklin’s stayin’ in the clinch. He said that in an interview! If I was interviewed for a fight I’d tell people I was gonna use a gun to stop Silva. Not because I would, but because I’d say anything. Why am I giving strategy away to one of 40 radio and print interviews I’m doing? I wouldn’t. Franklin is a very educated man. He’s said this several places. It’s not news, it’s the same bullshit fighters say leading to any fight, just a bit more misdirected. Only Couture details game plans live on a radio show on Thursday, and then does it on a Saturday. And his experience and mind for fighting have earned him that right. Most have not.
So I’ll say Franklin eats knees in a forced clinch, but not before throwing some bombs trying to keep the distance and stay away from the clinch, before shooting in. He’ll be Silva down once or twice, he’ll have some success, but ultimately it comes back standing and he gets knocked out. The hometown angle is a great story. I like Franklin. But after Silva wins, can we get him some respect? Not your typical hero worship overblown analysis or the sky is falling stuff on the other side after one loss. How bout “he’s one of the best, if not the best, 185 out there in this era. Period†That’s all. Silva 1st Round TKO.
Tim Sylvia vs Brandon Vera
This is the real main event to me. It’s not because they’re heavyweights and I subscribe to that, but more because I think it’s a closer fight and has more meaning on this particular night. I think Vera is gonna be rusty, but he’s the closest thing to a blue chip possible scary talent until Brock Lesner signs and starts out lower. Vera is far more well-rounded to me. The question is: can that talent be applied in the physical chess match? Sylvia is coming off surgery with a chip on his shoulder after being destroyed by Couture, so his motivation is there. Will Vera be able to catch Sylvia standing? Will that even matter if the big man can take the shots? Sylvia will most likely try to micro-manage the fight and go for the decision. Part of that is Vera off the feet on his back. The coin flip that may decide that is if Sylvia eats shots or even goes 50-50 standing, and goes to the ground with Vera, can era get on top and do damage? Can he keep Sylvia down and go for submissions or pound him out? I think he can, and I hope he submits Sylvia. I think it’s a better option for the UFC, and for more as a fan (opinion only) I don’t care how mean or nice Sylvia is, I’m just not terribly interested in him unless he’s the heel in the final scene of the Randy Couture story. Sue me. Verra 3rd Round by Submission.
I’ll go through the rest quickly. If you’re looking for hard analysis on these, you know the good sites to go to for that. Next event I’ll be more in depth, but I’ve got commitments this week.
The winners: Bonnar, Okami, Burkman, Gurgel, and I don’t feel knowledgeable on the rest to lie to you. That’s not what I do. Flip a coin on the way these men win, but enjoy yourself on Saturday night. I will.
E-mail John Philapavage at johnnyp@mmaopinion.com
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